EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?
EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?
This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.
Before we dive into the meat of this post, a couple of programming notes.
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This piece an excerpt from the first story in a series that analyzes the biggest x-factors of the upcoming season. The majority of that content is going to be for paying subs only, and frankly, they are some of my favorite pieces to put together. Last year, we took deep dives into:
How Virginia changed their offense after the UMBC debacle. (link)
How Matt Painter went from the most post heavy offense in college hoops to the most three-point heavy in four years. (link)
Why Tre Jones’ shooting mattered so much. (link)
The first x-factor we will be looking at this season is Iowa’s defense, and why they were still a long way away from being good enough to win a title last season.
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KenPom’s database dates all the way back to the 2001-2002 season, meaning that we have data to look at for 19 seasons and 18 NCAA tournaments.
(Yeah. It still makes me sad, too.)
And if anything has become clear over the course of those 19 seasons and 18 NCAA tournaments, it’s that it has been exceedingly difficult — to date, impossible — for a team that is not balanced to win a national title.
(One quick programming note before we move on: All the data in these charts comes from KenPom.com. They are the adjusted offensive (Ortg) and defensive (Drtg) efficiency rankings for each team, from prior to the start of the NCAA tournament (Pre-) as well as from the end of the season (Post-). The adjusted efficiency data itself cannot be compared across seasons, so we’re using where these teams rank. It’s not perfect, but it illustrates the point well enough.)
(One more programming note: We’re using rankings from before the start of the tournament here because making a run in March skews the data. KenPom’s metrics are adjusted for strength of schedule, so a deep run in the tournament means that team played, and beat, some really good teams that are also seeing their numbers get inflated. For example, in 2015, Duke went from 37th nationally to 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.)
So let’s dive into the numbers.
On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament. The average Final Four team ranks in the top 20 of both metrics:
There has never been a team that ranked outside the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency that has won the national title. North Carolina’s 2009 team was the lowest, at 39th overall.
Only one team that ranked outside of the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency has won the title. That was UConn in 2014, which was something of a fluke; remember, they knocked off No. 8-seed Kentucky in the title game:
All told, 15 teams have reached the Final Four with an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranked outside the top 30 entering the NCAA tournament.
South Carolina’s 2017 team and Louisville’s 2012 team were the only two to rank outside the top 100 to reach the sport’s final weekend:
That said, it’s tougher for teams that do not have good defenses to make a run in March.
Just two times since 2002 have we seen a team that ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency make a run to the national title game. One of those teams included National Player of the Year Trey Burke. The other beat No. 11-seed VCU in the Final Four to reach the title game.
That is a bad sign for this year’s Iowa team.
Because last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
They were 97th. According to KenPom’s projections for the 2020-21 season, Iowa is expected to be the 74th-best defensive team in college basketball:
Put another way, VCU’s 2011 team is the only one that worse than what Iowa was defensively last season to make it to a Final Four. Marquette’s 2003 team — the one with a guy they call Dwyane Wade on it — is the only other team that was worse defensively than what Iowa is projected to be to get to a Final Four.
So is Iowa’s defensive fixable?