Luka or Cade: Who is this year's Player of the Year?

Plus a full breakdown of The Rebound's Preseason All-American teams.

Aug 11, 2020

For my money, this should be a pretty easy and obvious pick to make:

Iowa’s Luka Garza.

He is a reigning first-team All-American that averaged 23.8 points and 9.8 boards a season ago and will be returning to anchor the offense for a team that is a lock to enter the year ranked in the top ten.

Let’s put this into context.

There has been just one player since Ralph Sampson, who won three straight Naismith Awards in the early-80s, that has returned to school after being named National Player of the Year. That was North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough, who swept the Player of the Year awards back in 2008 as a junior. He returned for his senior season, and while he did not win a second National Player of the Year award -- some kid from Oklahoma by the name of Blake Griffin had other ideas; Hansbrough, believe it or not, finished third in the ACC Player of the Year voting, behind teammate Ty Lawson and Florida State’s Toney Douglas -- he did earn himself a national title and a third-straight season as a first-team All-American.

Garza was not the Naismith Award winner last season. That went to Obi Toppin. But Garza was named the Sporting News National Player of the Year and the Stadium National Player of the Year, among other outlets. He may not have been a consensus award winner, but at the very worst, Garza was the runner-up as the best player in the sport a year ago.

And, if I’m going to be honest, there is a very real chance that Garza will once again be the second-best player in college basketball again this season.

If I’m a coach and I have the ability to pick any player across college basketball to start building a team around, it would be Oklahoma State freshman Cade Cunningham. A 6-foot-7 point guard with a 7-foot wingspan, Cunningham has a tremendous feel for the game. He's an elite passer that understands how to read a defense, can operate out of pick-and-rolls and makes all of the players around him better.

He'll likely be named Preseason Player of the Year by a few outlets, and there is a very real chance that, come tournament time, it will be clear that Cunningham should win the award.

But there is a difference between “the best player” and “the Player of the Year.” The former is the first guy you’d pick in a draft. The latter is the most accomplished, the guy that had the best season, and winning at a high level is inarguably factored into consideration when handing out these awards.

The last time that a player that was not on a team that earned a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament won the majority of the National Player of the Year awards was back in 2005, when Andrew Bogut put up 23 points and 12 boards for a 6-seed Utah team en route to being the No. 1 overall pick in that June’s NBA Draft. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1988, when Danny Manning and Hersey Hawkins split the vote, to find another example.

In the last 15 seasons, there have been just three National Player of the Year award winners that were not a part of a team that was a top-two seed, or one of the national title favorites. That list:

Kevin Durant won the award in 2007 after averaging 25.8 points and 11.1 boards for 4-seed Texas.
Jimmer Fredette was named Player of the Year in 2011 after he turned into a national sensation, putting up 28.9 points and 4.3 assists for a 3-seed BYU.
Doug McDermott swept the Player of the Year awards in 2014, culminating a sensational four-year career by averaging 26.7 points and 7.0 boards for Creighton, who earned a 3-seed that year.

That’s it.

That means we have more than three decades of evidence that proves the people picking postseason awards believe winning matters almost as much as putting up the counting stats.

Now, I’m not convinced that Iowa is going to truly be a national title contender. Their defense is an issue — I’ll have something much more in depth on this in the future — but they have enough weaponry and experience that it’s hard to imagine the bottom falling out of their season.

That’s not the case with Cunningham and Oklahoma State.

The major concern I have with the Pokes this season is that there isn’t going to be enough shooting around Cunningham to allow the thing that he does best — making the right decision to get the best possible shot on a possession — to shine. Put another way, I think Cunningham is the kind of player that needs to have options to pass to in order to be completely effective, and if Mike Boynton’s roster doesn’t have the capability to create the spacing to give Cunningham those options, it may be limiting.

Now, Cunningham may just be good enough that it doesn’t matter. And some of the players around him — Isaac Likelike, Ferron Flavors, Matthew Alexander-Moncrieffe, etc. — may find a way to start hitting shots.

And, shit, if we’re looking at trends, the last two players to win the Player of the Year award from outside the top four seeds were both the No. 1 pick in their draft. I think Cunningham will be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.

So if you’re leaning that way, if you believe the Oklahoma State star will be collecting that Naismith and Wooden hardware whenever the season comes to a close, I’m not going to be the one to tell you that you’re wrong.

Cade Cunningham is going to be the best player in college basketball.

But for my money, Garza is the favorite to win National Player of the Year, which is why he has been named The Rebound’s Preseason National Player of the Year.

FIRST-TEAM ALL-AMERICA

JARED BUTLER, Baylor

Butler is coming off of a season where I named him a third-team All-American, averaging 16.0 points and 3.1 assists for a Baylor team that went 26-4 on the season and spent time ranked No. 1 in the polls. The Bears would have been a 1-seed had the 2020 NCAA Tournament actually taken place, and they will be a favorite to be a 1-seed again this year, if not the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Poll.

Butler will play an integral role in all of that. There were long stretches this past season where the Bears really struggled to score. The one thing Butler can do, better than almost anyone in college basketball, is go and get himself a bucket. It’s that skill that had NBA teams interested in drafting him in the second round.

AYO DOSUNMU, Illinois

Dosunmu's one of those guys whose contribution goes beyond just his stats, which are impressive. He averaged 16.6 points, 3.3 assists and 4.3 boards last season for an Illinois team that won 20 games and would have reached the NCAA tournament in 2020. His return vaulted the Illini into the preseason top 10. They're that good because Dosunmu is that good.

But here’s the thing: Dosunmu represents more for Illinois. He's their leader. He put the state into a frenzy when he opted to return. And he just so happens to be one of the best big-shot makers in college hoops. He's the kind of difference-maker that Illinois has been missing for the last decade, and having him as an upperclassman means that Brad Underwood has a chance to win the Big Ten this year.

CADE CUNNINGHAM, Oklahoma State

I discussed Cunningham’s merits above, but suffice to say, if I think he’s going to be the best player in the sport, I’m going to have him listed as a first-teamer.

SAM HAUSER, Virginia

Hauser spent the first three seasons of his career playing at Marquette, where he averaged 14.9 points, 7.2 boards and 2.4 assists as a junior while shooting 44 percent from three on more than 500 career attempts in three seasons. He'll be the best offensive weapon on a top five Virginia team by a mile. As one source close to the program put it, “Sam can literally play 1-4 offensively. He’s so versatile, so complete. Ridiculous shooter. And all he wants to do is win.”

The big question with Hauser has always been the defense, but after spending a year in residence as a redshirt, there's no doubt in my mind that Tony Bennett has made him, at the very least, an effective piece in the Pack-Line. Hauser has no other option, which is why there’s no doubt in my mind the Wahoos will finish this season ranked in the top seven in adjusted defensive efficiency for the eighth straight year.

Their issue last season was scoring. Virginia finished last season 234th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, right in between George Washington and New Orleans. Hauser is the difference maker, the guy that will take this team from the top 40 to the top five. That’s worthy of All-American status.

LUKA GARZA, Iowa

According to my sources, if you are the Player of the Year you are also a first-team All-American.

SECOND-TEAM ALL-AMERICA

MARCUS ZEGAROWSKI, Creighton

Zegarowski was a second-team All-American for me last season after averaging 16.1 points and 5.0 assists for a Creighton team that won 24 games and was on track for a top three seed in the NCAA tournament. The Bluejays looked like they could be a top five team entering this season, but took a hit when Ty-Shon Alexander announced that he will be going pro. That will put even more pressure on Zegarowski, who is one of the best floor generals in the sport. I’m expecting a big year, and I am not alone.

COLLIN GILLESPIE, Villanova

Gillespie took a leap as a junior, averaging 15.1 points and 4.5 assists for the Wildcats. A quintessential veteran Villanova point guard, Gillespie will be the leader for a team that I believe will be the best team in college basketball this year. He may not be the most talented player on Jay Wright's roster, or the best NBA prospect in the program, but Gillespie is the guy that will make this team tick.

COREY KISPERT, Gonzaga

Picking an All-American off of Gonzaga's roster is tough this season. Jalen Suggs could end up leading the team in scoring at the point, Joel Ayayi seems to be on the verge of a big junior year and Drew Timme will be one of the breakout stars in the sport. That said, I'm going with Kispert, an integral cog in Mark Few's machine that will be the veteran leader on a roster with quite a bit of young talent. He's a knockdown shooter that plays within himself and came back to school despite having a chance to be a second round pick. He's my pick for WCC Player of the Year, and I think he’ll be the most valuable player on a team that will have a very real chance to win a national title.

B.J. BOSTON, Kentucky

Boston looks to be the best of the bunch when it comes to Kentucky's 2020 recruiting class. A long and lanky scorer, Boston has the rep of being a terrific worker that is known for his ability to create shots for himself. I expect that he'll be Kentucky's best player next season, and given their point guard concerns, the fact that Boston can go get his own shots will be really important for John Calipari.

JEREMIAH ROBINSON-EARL, Villanova

Robinson-Earl is coming off of a season where he very nearly averaged a double-double as a freshman while adding a pair of assists per game while shooting 33 percent from three. Having a big that can space the floor allows Jay Wright to invert his offense, and I fully expect those perimeter shooting numbers to spike this season for JRE. I would not be surprised to see him churn out a season that is similar to the one that Omari Spellman had while helping the Wildcats win the 2018 national title.

THIRD-TEAM ALL-AMERICA

DAVID JOHNSON, Louisville

It may seem weird to have Johnson slotted this high given that he averaged just 6.3 points and 2.8 assists last season, but he is my pick as the biggest breakout star in college basketball next season. A sensational passer and solid defender, Johnson was really good down the stretch of the season after overcoming a shoulder injury that kept him out of the mix for for much of the summer and fall. Come next summer, I believe we’ll be talking about Johnson as a lottery pick.

CHRIS SMITH, UCLA

Maybe I’m too high on Smith, and the Bruins in general, but in a year where the Pac-12 projects to be competitive and open at the top, I do think UCLA is going to be the best team. And I expect Smith to be their best player. After averaging 13.4 points as a junior, Smith very nearly left school for the professional ranks, where he is a better prospect than people realize. Remember, he’s coming back for his senior season while being months younger than one-and-done freshmen Precious Achiuwa and Cassius Stanley.

GARRISON BROOKS, North Carolina

Brooks is coming off of a season where he averaged 16.8 points and 8.5 boards for the Tar Heels. He was particularly dominant down the stretch, when the Tar Heels got over some of their injury and chemistry issues and started winning games. With a solid recruiting class coming in, Brooks should shine as the quintessential Roy Williams big man.

TRAYCE JACKSON-DAVIS, Indiana

After a season where he averaged 13.5 points and 8.4 boards for an Indiana team that ranked 34th on KenPom and likely would have been in the NCAA tournament had there been an NCAA tournament, Jackson-Davis looks primed for a big sophomore year. The Hoosiers lose their most shot-happy player (Devonte Green) and their third-leading scorer (Justin Smith), meaning Archie Miller will be relying even more on the big fella.

EVAN MOBLEY, USC

Mobley was the toughest player for me on this list. To be an All-American, you have to do one of two things: Be the best player on one of the very best teams in the sport, or put up numbers that are impossible to overlook. I’m not sure Mobley will do either. USC is far from a surefire tournament team in my eyes, but what makes Mobley such an intriguing NBA talent has less to do with his ability to take over games and more to do with the way he fits into modern basketball. He’s an elite rim protector and vertical spacer that can make perimeter shots and has the potential to be able to guard smaller players in space. Put another way, it’s less about his counting stats and more about the way he allows his team to play.

And keep this in mind: Onyeka Okongwu averaged 16.2 points, 8.6 boards and 2.7 blocks last season. He’ll be a top ten pick. He was not an All-American. Food for thought.

The Rebound