Monday's Overreactions!!! Welcome to college basketball season
On Gonzaga, Illinois, the Princeton offense and the blue-bloods.
I’m not going to lie to you: It feels great to have college basketball back in our lives.
I cannot explain how excited I am to be able to fire off college hoops hot takes after what amounted to the closest thing that we are going to get to a full weekend of action. It’s uncomfortable and problematic and there are going to be situations, like Gonzaga, where it seems insane to play the games. But as I discussed on Thursday, I’ve made my peace with those feelings.
Anyway, let’s get to the overreactions.
Because there is plenty for us to talk about after the week that was.
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PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
It was always going to take a lot for Ayo to live up to the hype that he had coming into this season. A preseason first-team All-American that passed up a chance at an NBA contract to return to the flagship program in his home state, a decision that jettisoned his team to the top ten of the preseason rankings.
That’s a lot.
And Dosunmu has surpassed expectations through the first week.
Now, look: The competition has not really been all that great. Chicago State is horrible. NC A&T is only slightly better than them. Illinois ran those two teams out of Champaign. But Ohio is good. They have an NBA player running the point in Jason Preston. Their head coach, Jeff Boals, put together the perfect game-plan. It would have worked if it wasn’t for Dosunmu, who finished with 27 points, eight assists and seven boards while making the game-winning free throws in the final seconds.
Through three games, he’s averaging 25.7 points, 7.7 boards and 6.7 assists while shooting 42.9 percent from three. Not bad.
TEAM OF THE WEEK: Princeton Tigers
Not because of what they did on the court, but because of what the offense that is named after their program was able to accomplish.
First of all, on Friday afternoon, San Francisco used a Princeton-based scheme to spread out then-No. 4 Virginia and knock off the Wahoos in Bubbleville just two days after losing to UMass-Lowell. Because that makes perfect sense for 2020.
Then, just two days later, the Richmond Spiders, who run the Princeton, went into Rupp Arena and knocked off then-No. 10 Kentucky, 76-64.
Chris Mooney’s club got 18 points apiece from Blake Francis and Nathan Cayo while Grant Golden finished with 13 points, seven boards and five assists in a 76-64 win over then-No. 10 Kentucky. The Spiders outscored Kentucky by 16 points in the second half, putting up 48 points on what was supposed to be a vaunted defense.
MONDAY’S OVERREACTIONS
1. GONZAGA IS THE BEST TEAM IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL
I’m sick of the bullshit narrative that is apparently still out there than Gonzaga is overrated, that they only win a bunch of games because of the conference that they play it, that they are choke-artists in the month of March.
It, frankly, is utter insanity that we are in 2020 and people still believe this. The Zags have been to five straight Sweet 16s and three of the last five Elite Eights. They made it to the 2017 national title game, which they might have won had it not been for a sprained ankle suffered by Nigel Williams-Goss during the title game. They are consistently sending players to the NBA. They are able to thrive as a program despite the fact that they are constantly losing pros earlier than expected. Williams-Goss and Brandon Clarke both left as All-Americans with a year of eligibility remaining. Zach Norvell left with two years of eligibility remaining. Zach Collins left as a one-and-done freshman. The program did not build around the idea that any of those games would leave when they left.
And it has not slowed them down one iota.
I’d argue that outside of Villanova, Gonzaga is the healthiest program in American.
This year’s team?
It’s so clearly the most talented team that Mark Few has ever had in Spokane, and I say that knowing full well that two years ago, they started three guys currently in the NBA (Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, Zach Norvell) and brought a fourth off the bench (Killian Tillie).
Gonzaga has never had a Jalen Suggs before. We’ve discussed that already. But then there’s Corey Kispert, who I think can be a first round pick this year and who would make the rotation for most of the NBA franchises right now. Drew Timme is so good that he forced Filip Petrusev, a second-team All-American last season, to leave school; Petrusev was named October MVP in the very good Adriatic League. Andrew Nembhard was a starter in the SEC. He comes off the bench. Joel Ayayi will be drafted. Oumar Ballo probably will one day as well.
I don’t think that it is an exaggeration to say that we’ll be comparing this Gonzaga team to the likes of 2018 Villanova, 2012 Kentucky and all of those great 2015 teams by the time this is all said and done.
Having said all of that …
2. … BAYLOR MAY NOT ACTUALLY BE FAR BEHIND
Now, full disclosure, I have not actually had the chance to sit down and watch Baylor’s games against Washington or Louisiana yet. (Long story involving Christmas lights, leftover turkey and a dad that falls asleep on couches.)
But it’s absolutely notable that, in a year where power programs are having some trouble putting away quality opponents, Baylor has won two games by 64 total points against a solid Louisiana team and Washington, who does play in the Pac-12.
What’s scary is the firepower offensively.
Look, the Bears are never going to be what they were on the defensive side of the ball last year because they lost a guy in Freddie Gillespie that was an absolutely elite defender. But when you can roll out lineups where Davion Mitchell is the worst offensive weapon out of your four guards with 6-foot-5 Mark Vital playing the five, you are going to be a nightmare to slow down.
That’s why they’re averaging 99 points through two games. That’s why they’re shooting 50 percent from three in two games.
Baylor being fun offensively is not something I was expecting to see.
3. I’M NOT WORRIED ABOUT KENTUCKY LONG-TERM
Look, the point guard play is a major concern. There is no sugar coating it. Devin Askew and Davion Mintz combined to go 0-for-7 from the floor and 0-for-4 from three while scoring a total of two points with just two assists and three turnovers against Richmond. That’s not acceptable, not if Kentucky is going to be anywhere near as good as they expect to be.
But Kentucky having point guard issues is hardly unexpected. We knew this was coming. We knew that, long-term, the key to this team reaching a ceiling was to become a defensive juggernaut, to rely on their length and their athleticism on that end of the floor to carry them while hoping that Terrence Clarke’s playmaking, B.J. Boston’s ability running off of screens and their frontcourt’s insatiable appetite on the offensive glass to be enough to get them wins.
Are we really now going to pretend to be surprised that Kentucky didn’t look great defensively against a top 25 Richmond team that starts four seniors and runs an offense that is absolutely not easy to figure out?
This team did not get a typical summer to gel. They did not get all the usual buy games Cal gets to work through things in November. And they’re doing all of this with Keion Brooks, the only guy returning from last season, injured.
It was always going to be a process for Kentucky.
All this Richmond loss did was remind us of how far the Wildcats have to grow.
4. I’M NOT WORRIED ABOUT VILLANOVA, EITHER
I don’t know how many coaches in the sport are more difficult to prepare for on a short turnaround than Mike Young is.
Hell, Villanova’s coaching staff didn’t even have time before get ahead on their scouts before they played on Saturday night. This game was agreed to less than 48 hours before it was tipped off.
Considering that Virginia Tech was also the third game in four days for a program that dealt with some injuries during the preseason, and this was a matchup where we should have seem some Villanova struggles coming.
I still believe this is one of the three best teams in America. I do not, however, think they are in the same conversation as Gonzaga.
For me, the concern with Villanova has less to do with being prepped to deal with all of the screens and off-ball actions that the Hokies ran and (much, much) more to do with the fact that Villanova’s defense seems incapable of keeping opposing ball-handlers from getting into the paint.
Villanova wasn’t great defensively when they won the 2018 title. This year’s Gonzaga team isn’t great defensively. North Carolina’s 2009 title-winning team wasn’t great defensively. All three have, or had, some flaws that need to be worked around, and that’s doable when you are thoroughly elite on the offensive end.
This year’s Villanova team is not quite dangerous enough. Not everyone can have four or five NBA players on the roster.
5. I AM VERY WORRIED ABOUT DUKE
There is so much going on with this Duke team, and not much of it makes sense.
For starters, let’s talk about the starters against Coppin State: Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker and Matthew Hurt. This is not the kind of talent level we are used to seeing with the Blue Devils. They don’t have any rim protection right now, unless you consider Jalen Johnson to be a rim protector.
This is a problem because, no matter what lineup they are rolling out, there are going to be defensive liabilities on the floor. I just do not trust Hurt defensively. Full-stop. Baker is not all that much better. I’m not against the idea that Jeremy Roach and D.J. Steward can be impact defenders, but they didn’t stand out against Coppin State.
Johnson is special. His passing is so much fun to watch, and he’s going to put up massive numbers because of the way Duke is using him as a grab-and-go threat.
But to really capitalize on his ability, you need 3-and-D guys around him. Perhaps my biggest concern with Duke is that there are too any 3-or-D guys on the floor with him. Duke doesn’t really have any two-way players. For me, it is always a red flag when a team’s best offensive five and best defensive five has significantly different looks.
And for my money, that is the case with this team.
Hey Rob, glad to see "Monday Overreactions!!! continue on your substack. I am a big fan of your content, thanks for continuing to pump it out. I am a Duke fan and think you are on the money about the lack of two way players, it was a big problem last year, too. However, Baker in the starting line-up was quickly corrected with DJ Steward starting the second half. I think K's ideal line-up is ultimately Johnson, Steward, Roach, Hurt and Moore...that would mean Hurt has to be able to guard 5s and you are quite correct to question that possibility. Both traditional big are brand new and at opposite ends of the spectrum...Grad Transfer Patrick Tape and Freshman 7 footer Mark Williams. I am sure we'll see them against MSU tomorrow night, and maybe that will give us an indication as to whether or not Duke plays small all year. Johnson was protecting the rim against Coppin, but Coppin was also a 5 out squad that jacked 3s and didn't really go inside much. With the youth, lack of a preseason and the elimination of a vaunted home court advantage, Duke fans have to take the long view this year. It may be the rare K squad that is a lot better in March than in December.