THE BUBBLE WATCH!!!
How did Saturday's action impact the team's on the cut line?
I love the bubble, and I haven’t had a chance to break it down as much as I normally do in a given season. So here, free to all, is a look at how Saturday’s action impacted the cut line.
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WINNERS
NORTH CAROLINA
NET: 43, KenPom: 35, Bracket Matrix: 10
Coming off of a dreadful loss to Marquette on Wednesday, the Tar Heels bounced back with an enormous win over Florida State in the Dean Dome on Saturday afternoon. The Tar Heels erased a 16-point deficit during the comeback, which allowed them to secure their first win over a team ranked higher than 48th in the NET and just their second Quad 1 win overall. With an 8-7 mark against the top two Quads and only the Marquette loss outside Quad 2, the Tar Heels are in a pretty good place right now.
XAVIER
NET: 57, KenPom: 58, Bracket Matrix: 11
The Musketeers improved to 13-5 on the season on Saturday as they landed their second Quad 1 win of the season, knocking off the Creighton Bluejays in the Cintas Center. It’s their best win of the season, to pair with a home win over Oklahoma. Xavier was likely on the right side of the bubble entering Saturday, and this is only going to help matters. With only Georgetown and Marquette left on the schedule, it makes the win even more important.
UCONN
NET: 42, KenPom: 28, Bracket Matrix: 11
UConn took care of business against Marquette, knocking off the Golden Eagles by 18 points in a game where the Huskies looked like a tournament team for the first time since James Bouknight returned. The Huskies are going to be a fascinating test case for the NCAA tournament committee when it comes to valuing a resume based on key players that missed time, but if they can win at Seton Hall this week and avoid a loss at home to Georgetown, we’re talking about a test case based on where they’re seeded, not whether or not they can get in.
ST. BONAVENTURE
NET: 29, KenPom: 33, Bracket Matrix: 11
The Bonnies are now 13-3 overall and all alone in first place in the Atlantic 10 at 11-3 in the league after picking off George Washington 80-something to 40-something in Olean on Saturday. The Bonnies have a weird profile. They are 3-3 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. They have a loss to Rhode Island on the road, and they really only have two good wins — at Richmond and VCU at home — but their metrics are terrific and it’s hard to punish them too much when the Atlantic 10 has been cannibalizing themselves as their best teams deal with COVID pauses at inopportune times.
GEORGIA TECH
NET: 40, KenPom: 32, Bracket Matrix: First Four Out
If you erase the first two games of the season from your memory, Georgia Tech actually has a pretty strong profile. They beat Florida State at home, an elite win. They are 7-6 against the top two Quadrants. Their metrics are fine.
The only problem?
Those two pesky home losses to Mercer (119) and Georgia State (135). Beating Syracuse helped, but I think they need to get Duke at home next week and avoid a loss to Wake Forest in the finale to really have a chance.
COLORADO STATE
NET: 45, KenPom: 67, Bracket Matrix: Play-in Game
Colorado State dodged a serious bullet on Saturday, coming back from a three-week pause by knocking off a very bad Air Force team. They have another game against Air Force on Monday and follow that up with a game against New Mexico on Wednesday. That’s a lot of games against bad teams coming up, and a loss in either of them would torpedo their tournament chances. Wins at San Diego State and Utah State are going to look good on Selection Sunday.
SAN DIEGO STATE
NET: 22, KenPom: 20, Bracket Matrix: 8
For my money, the Aztecs just punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament with their second win over Boise State in the span of three days. They have great computer metrics, and while they don’t have a Quad 1 win, they are 18-4 overall, alone in first place in a really good Mountain West and sitting pretty with four wins over top 50 opponents. It’s not a perfect profile, but nothing is this year.
LOYOLA
NET: 12, KenPom: 11, Bracket Matrix: 9
The Ramblers swept Southern Illinois, hanging on despite being taken to overtime by the Salukis on Saturday, meaning that they will enter Arch Madness with sensational metrics and a 5-4 mark against the top two Quadrants. They lost their relevant non-conference games, but that should not matter. Loyola, for my money, is a lock.
LOSERS
DUKE
NET: 49, KenPom: 35, Bracket Matrix: First Four Out
Duke’s four-game winning streak came to an end on Saturday when the Blue Devils fell at home against Louisville. This certainly doesn’t help Duke’s cause, but the truth is that they needed to go 2-1 in their final three regular season games to get in, and this is the loss. Win at Georgia Tech (40) and win at North Carolina (43) and Duke should find themselves on the right side of the bubble. That would get them to 4-5 against Quad 1 opponents and 13-9 overall. I think that does the trick.
STANFORD
NET: 60, KenPom: 70, Bracket Matrix: First Four Out
The Cardinal had an argument to get in when they were sitting at 14-8 overall. Since then, they have lost at Washington State, at home to Oregon and at home to Oregon State, their first Quad 3 loss of the season. The win over Alabama looks great, and they are 4-5 against Quad 1 opponents, but a 6-10 mark against the top two Quadrants and 11 overall losses is not enough. I think they’re out.
VCU
NET: 35, KenPom: 49, Bracket Matrix: 10
The Rams did themselves no favors on Saturday night as they lost at Davidson, adding a Quad 2 loss to their resume. VCU had ground to make up after they suffered their second Quad 3 loss of the season last week, falling at home against George Mason.
I’ll be honest: I don’t see it with VCU. They are 1-3 against Quad 1 opponents, and the one only became a one when the Bonnies snuck into the top 30 of the NET. They have a home win over Saint Louis and neutral court wins against Utah State and Memphis, but all three of those teams could end up missing the dance. Oh, and they have a pair of sub-95 losses! That’s a No. 10-seed?
BOISE STATE
NET: 38, KenPom: 55, Bracket Matrix: 10
The Broncos missed two great chances to more or less lock up a bid when they dropped a pair of games at San Diego State this week. They’re now sitting at 17-6 over and 14-5 in the Mountain West. They have a pair or Quad 1 wins (at BYU, at Colorado State) but those two losses to Nevada (104) are quite the eyesore. I think they are probably going to be OK, but I would recommend winning a couple games in the MWC tournament just to be safe.
BELMONT
NET: 74, KenPom: 83, Bracket Matrix: Next Four Out
The Bruins ended their season with losses at Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State. They had a chance at an at-large with their poor metrics and a schedule devoid of any Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponents when they were sitting pretty with a 23-1 record. But even if the committee factors in the loss of Nick Muszynski, they also have a loss to 4-12 Samford. Auto-bid or bust, unfortunately.
INDIANA
NET: 53, KenPom: 37, Bracket Matrix: Play-in Game
The Hoosiers lost at home against Michigan on Saturday, dropping them to 12-12 overall and just 7-10 in the Big Ten. It’s the fifth-straight season that they will not finish the year with a record above .500 in the league. The Hoosiers do have a pair of wins over Iowa this season, but when you combine their 2-9 mark against Quad 1 opponents with a home loss to Northwestern, you get a team that has a lot of work to do to get on to the right side of the bubble. I think they need to win the next three games, minimum, to have a real chance.
MINNESOTA
NET: 65, KenPom: 58, Bracket Matrix: Next Four Out
The Gophers lost at Nebraska on Saturday. That means that they were swept by the Cornhuskers and Northwestern this week. They’re 13-12 overall and 6-12 in the Big Ten. They’ve done.
DRAKE
NET: 33, KenPom: 46, Bracket Matrix: 11
The Bulldogs suffered a brutal loss on Saturday, falling at Bradley in the second game of a back-to-back. It’s their third Quad 3 loss of the season, as they also lost at Valparaiso this season. They do have the win over Loyola, but that’s their only win against a top 85 opponent. I don’t think they can get in if they lose to someone other than Loyola in the MVC tournament, and even then, I don’t think they’re close to a lock.