THE BUBBLE WATCH!!!
What in the hell was the Mountain West thinking?
I love the bubble, and I haven’t had a chance to break it down as much as I normally do in a given season. So here, free to all, is a look at how Saturday’s action impacted the cut line.
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I’m still in awe over the decisions that the Mountain West made this week.
For my money, this is the best that the conference has been since the days of Kawhi Leonard, Jimmer Fredette and Steve Alford in Albuquerque. The conference has some tremendous coaches. There are NBA players in the league. And the fact that two pros left after last season — Malachi Flynn and Sam Merrill — there is a real chance that we could end up getting four teams from the conference in the NCAA tournament this season.
San Diego State is in.
Colorado State, Boise State and Utah State are all in various stages of cut-line purgatory, but truth be told, that hell got a little hotter in the last five days.
The conference left the final week of the regular season open to give themselves a window to be able to reschedule games that fell victim to COVID pauses. In theory, that’s a good thing, until you have teams that are at the end of a grueling, isolated seven-month meat grinder of a season looking forward to some time off that are instead asked to play games to fill inventory for TV networks and to level the playing field.
That’s what the league’s three bubble teams were asked to do this week.
And it may have cost them a chance to be more than a one-bid league.
We’ll start with Colorado State, because this is the most egregious. The final two games on their schedule came at home against Air Force, a series that was played on Sat., Feb. 27th, and Mon., Mar. 1st. The Rams were coming out of their second COVID pause of the season, and it was the perfect way to ease them back into playing. But the league then added a home game against a New Mexico team that had already fired their coach on Wednesday as well as a road game against Nevada, a top 100 team, on Friday night.
Four games in seven days coming out of a COVID pause with the last games coming against a top five team in the conference that had five days’ rest.
Colorado State lost. Now, with a 16-5 record, a pair of Quad 1 wins — including at San Diego State — and a split with the three other top four teams in the league, I still think CSU has a good chance to get it. But it was a lot better before they added their worst loss of the season.
Boise was put in a similar spot. They lost a pair of streetfights at San Diego State, putting them at 17-6 overall with a 2-4 mark against Quad 1 opponents. They were right on the cutline before they were asked to host Fresno State, their third game in six days and their first game after losing to SDSU for the second time.
They lost.
That’s a Quad 4 loss.
The Broncos may need the autobid to get in now.
Utah State almost fell victim to the Bulldogs as well, trailing by 12 points in the first half and needing a pair of late threes to pick Fresno off on the road. They’re currently on the outside looking in of most projections thanks to a pair of Quad 3 losses they took earlier this year.
We’ll see how this all pans out.
But it’s pretty wild that the league put their potential tournament teams in this position.
WINNERS
ST. BONAVENTURE
(NET: 28, KENPOM: 27, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 10)
For my money, the Bonnies punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament on Sunday night, picking off Saint Louis with a 71-53 win in the Atlantic 10 semifinals. They now have three Quad 1 wins, a 5-3 mark against the top two Quadrants, metrics in the top 30 and just one bad loss, to a top 100 Dayton team at home. With nothing but another Quad 1 opportunity left in the Atlantic 10 title game against VCU, there’s no downside.
VCU
(NET: 35, KENPOM: 42, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 11)
VCU picked off Davidson in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament, meaning that they will play the Bonnies for the right to get the automatic bid from the league. Now, I do think that VCU is probably in going to end up on the right side of the bubble either way this thing breaks. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins and are sitting at 9-4 against the top two Quadrants. But they do have a pair of Quad 3 losses, although those were shorthanded. It will be a sweat on Selection Sunday if they lose, but I think we are going to have a two-bid Atlantic 10.
NORTH CAROLINA
(NET: 43, KENPOM: 31, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 10)
I think the Tar Heels just about punched their ticket to the tournament on Saturday by beating the breaks off of Duke. They’re 9-8 against the top two Quadrants, and while they do have a win over Florida State, they are just 2-8 against Quad 1 and they have a Quad 3 home loss to Marquette. So avoiding a loss to Notre Dame or Wake Forest in the quarterfinals will be important, but I’m not entirely sure that it will matter either way.
RUTGERS
(NET: 38, KENPOM: 33, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 10)
The Scarlet Knights avoided a disastrous loss on Saturday, winning in overtime at Minnesota, and I think that will do the trick. Rutgers is probably dancing. They have a home win over Illinois, they are 4-9 against Quad 1 opponents and their 9-10 mark against the top two Quads looks just a bit better now that losing at Nebraska is a Quad 2 loss instead of a Quad 3 loss. Rutgers is in the tournament. Duke is not. Think about that.
WICHITA STATE
(NET: 63, KENPOM: 72, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 11)
Credit where it’s due: Isaac Brown has been one of the best coaches in the country this season. The Shockers are 13-4 on the season and won the American regular season title on Saturday beating South Florida. They’ve now won seven straight games, including a home victory over Houston in February. With a pair of Quad 1 wins and no losses outside the top 55, the Shockers are on the right side of the bubble for now in my mind.
DRAKE
(NET: 42, KENPOM: 54, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: play-in game)
Drake beat Missouri State at the buzzer to get to the Missouri Valley title game on Sunday, making them the most interesting team on the bubble this season. They are 23-3 overall and they have a win over a top 20 team in Loyola. They also have a pair of ugly losses to their name — Valpo and Bradley, both Quad 3 — and I’m not sure that one Quad 1 win and a 6-2 (if they lose on Sunday) mark against the top two Quadrants will be enough when they are missing two of their best players.
LOSERS
UCLA
(NET: 41, KENPOM: 40, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 9)
On the surface, UCLA looks like a team that is fairly safe. They are 17-8 overall even after blowing a lead and losing at home to USC on Saturday. They have a pair of Quad 1 wins, and their worst loss is still a borderline top 100 road loss to Washington State. But their entire resume is essentially three wins: They beat Colorado at home and they swept Arizona. That’s it. Now, in a condensed season, that might be enough to get in, but as a No. 9-seed? I do not get that at all. I think UCLA is much closer to the bubble than the consensus.
XAVIER
(NET: 52, KENPOM: 59, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: play-in game)
The Musketeers did themselves no favors on Saturday, as they followed up a loss at Georgetown with a loss at Marquette. That’s another pair of Quad 2 losses for a program that really, really needed to add some depth to their resume. They are now 13-7 overall with wins over Creighton and Oklahoma at home, but just a 5-7 mark against the top two Quadrants. I think they need to win a two games in the Big East to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
DUKE
(NET: 58, KENPOM: 41, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: Next four out)
After losing to North Carolina on Saturday, I think the Blue Devils need to make a run to the ACC title game to really have a chance to get in as an at-large. They are 11-11 overall, but they lost their last three games of the regular season, a stretch I thought they needed to go 2-1 in. Now, they are 2-5 against Quad 1 opponents and 6-9 against Quad 2 opponents, but they also have a home loss to Notre Dame and a loss at Miami, both of which are Quad 3. I think they need to beat Boston College in the first round, Virginia Tech in the quarters and Florida State in the semifinals to get in. That’s a big ask.
LOUISVILLE
(NET: 49, KENPOM: 52, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: 10)
Man, Louisville has such a weird resume. They were humiliated two on the road against mediocre teams, losing by 37 at Wisconsin and by 45 at North Carolina. Their only Quad 1 win came at Duke. But they are 6-0 against Quad 2 opponents, they swept Duke and beat Kentucky and they only have one bad loss on their resume, at Miami. There really isn’t much there, but if they can beat Duke in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, I think they’re probably in.
SAINT LOUIS
(NET: 36, KENPOM: 48, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: First four out)
After losing to St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 semifinals on Saturday night, Billiken head coach Travis Ford said that his team was going to try and schedule another game to add good games to their resume. That’s a smart decision, because I think they are on the wrong side of the bubble. They have beaten St. Bonaventure and LSU at home, and they did pick off N.C. State and Richmond, but that loss to La Salle (202) is just such an eyesore. If they can find a game against a Quad 1 opponent and win it, then there’s a real chance they could jump someone like Boise State, or Michigan State, or even Drake and get into the dance.
SETON HALL
(NET: 57, KENPOM: 55, BRACKET MATRIX SEED: First four out)
Seton Hall is out for me. They lost their last four games, including on Saturday, when they blew an 18-0 lead at St. John’s. They are 13-2 on the season and they have just one win over a top 45 opponents.