The Rebound's ACC Preview
Can Sam Hauser fix Virginia's offensive woes? Is Duke flying under the radar as a title contender? Does UNC have any shooters? Will Scottie Barnes be the best player in the league?
The Rebound’s season preview coverage will be free. If you do enjoy the content that you read here, please consider subscribing to the newsletter for full access during the season for just $7/month or $70 for the year.
THREE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
1. SAM HAUSER SOLVES VIRGINIA’S OFFENSIVE WOES
For the most part, the narrative that Virginia is a team that cannot run offense and cannot score is a myth.
For the majority of the Tony Bennett era, they have been one of the nation’s elite offensive programs. They are, generally speaking, utterly ruthless offensively. They just so happen to play at a pace that makes you wonder if Bennett realizes that there is, in fact, a shot clock in the college game in 2020.
Last season, Virginia actually lived up to their reputation.
They were utterly abysmal on the offensive end of the floor. They shot 30.1 percent from three. They couldn’t run offense because their was no spacing, and they didn’t have anyone on the roster that was capable of creating shots out of nothing. The result? They ranked 234th in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Enter Sam Hauser.
A 6-foot-8 sharpshooter and a prototype for a modern four, Hauser is one of college basketball’s elite offensive weapons and, as a redshirt senior, one of the oldest players in the sport. He is precisely the piece that Bennett needed, but I’ve written quite a bit on Hauser already this offseason.
You can read the full, 3,000-word deep dive here. But if you’re only interested in what UVA did to get Hauser ready for their system during his redshirt season, check this piece out.
2. DUKE IS FLYING UNDER THE RADAR
For the second straight season, it feels like the Duke hype train has slowed to a crawl.
Last season was the first time since the days of Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry that Coach K did not have a top three pick on his roster. And while the Blue Devils went 25-6 and finished second in the ACC with a trio of top 40 picks on their roster — including the most productive freshman in the country (Vernon Carey) and an All-American legacy point guard (Tre Jones) — they didn’t resonate nationally the way that we have come to expect.
I expect that will happen again this season, as Duke’s roster isn’t exactly loaded with future NBA stars.
But I also expect that the Blue Devils will outperform their hype, so to speak.
The key, to me, lies with Jalen Johnson. A top 20 recruit that was, at one point, considered a top five player in the class, Coach K has had plenty of success with players in the big wing mold. Johnson is different than the previous 3/4s that Duke has had on their roster in the sense that he is much more of a creative force than he is an out-and-out bucket-getter. Johnson’s passing and ability to create offense in transition at 6-foot-8 is what makes him special.
This, in turn, takes the pressure off the likes of freshmen guards Jeremy Roach and D.J. Steward as well as sophomore Wendell Moore, who really came on strong late in the season. I am worried about what happens at the five, but the combination of young talent (Mark Williams) and a fifth-year senior (Patrick Tape) could be worse. With Matthew Hurt back and depth everyone on the roster, it’s hard not to like this group.
Maybe they’ll get some hype now?
3. SCOTTIE BARNES IS THE LATEST MEMBER OF FLORIDA STATE’S BUZZSAW
I swear, every player that Leonard Hamilton has ever coached, recruited, scouted, texted, followed on twitter or looked up on 247 Sports is exactly the same.
Every single one.
They’re all somewhere in that 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-8 range with length, athleticism and versatility. They all can make an open jumper. They all can guard 1-through-5. They all are tougher than a two-dollar steak. And they all fit perfectly in his defensive system of pressing, switching and overall headache-creation.
And while this may be a hot take, I’m not sure that there has ever been a better fit for Hamilton’s method to madness than Scottie Barnes. A long, athletic 6-foot-8 combo-forward, Barnes is an absolute menace defensively that can guard anyone, is an elite passer and competes his balls off on every possession. He’s the reason I’m not too worried about Trent Forrest graduating If he extends his jumper beyond the three-point line, he’ll develop into the prototype big wing in the modern NBA.
Those are precisely the kind of players that thrive with the Seminoles.
So while FSU is losing Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell a year earlier than expected, Barnes is exactly who they needed to keep them in the mix at the top of the ACC.
THREE THINGS WE NEED TO FIND OUT
1. ARE NORTH CAROLINA’S WINGS ANY GOOD?
Roy Williams will have the best frontcourt in college basketball at his disposal this upcoming season. Garrison Brooks could very well end up being the ACC Preseason Player of the Year. Armando Bacot was a five-star recruit last season that averaged a respectable 9.6 points and 8.3 boards. Walker Kessler is a five-star recruit enrolling this year. And Day-Ron Sharpe may end up being the best of the bunch, a potential one-and-done five coming off of UNC’s bench. (We have seen that before, right Tony Bradley?)
I also feel good about their point guard play. Caleb Love falls right in line with what Roy Williams is looking for out of his lead guards: A one-and-done shot-getting ball-handler in the mold of a Coby White, or a Cole Anthony, or a Joel Berry, or a Marcus Paige. A five-star recruit, I do expect a big season out of him.
Where the problems arise is on the wings.
Carolina’s biggest issue last season was a lack of shooting. It meant that defenses could collapse on Anthony, taking advantage of the fact that his shot selection and ability to read help defenders was very much a work in progress. I don’t know how that problem gets better this season. I’m not sold on Leaky Black. I’m not sold on Anthony Harris. I was beginning to find myself in a position to start getting sold on Brandon Robinson at the end of last season, and he graduated. It’s gotten to the point that people are speculating that a reining first-team All-ACC center in Garrison Brooks will play at the three. That would be bad, bad, bad.
R.J. Davis is 5-foot-11, but he may be the answer; Love is big enough that he can guard twos. But can UNC win with a pair of shoot-first freshman starting in their backcourt? That’s a big ask.
2. IS ANYONE ON LOUISVILLE A KNOWN ENTITY?
I think I really like this Louisville team.
At least I want to really like them. They bring back David Johnson, Samuell Williamson and Malik Williams. They add a pair of mid-major grad transfers in Carlik Jones and Charles Mineland. That starting five right there is something I can really talk myself into. Johnson, I believe, is going to be a lottery pick by the end of the season (more on that below), while Williamson profiles as the kind of 3/4 that Chris Mack has had success with in the pass. Jones should be good enough on and off the ball to pair with Johnson, and Mineland is a veteran that can play defense and make shots. Throw in Williams, as well as all of the former four-stars that Mack has brought in to fill out the depth on his roster, and Louisville looks really good on paper.
But basketball isn’t played on paper.
And there are just so many question marks with this group. Will Johnson make the leap? Will Williamson? Can Jones and Mineland handle this jump in level? Can anyone on the bench step up and provide major minutes?
When I tell myself the story of home Louisville can make a run at the ACC regular season title, I find myself saying ‘if’ far too much.
3. IS THE MIDDLE OF THE LEAGUE ANY GOOD?
If the NCAA tournament had happened last season, only four ACC teams would have gotten in.
Think about that for a second.
The disaster that was Virginia was easily a top four team in the conference. They finished tied for second in the league with Duke and Louisville, a full four games ahead of Georgia Tech, who finished in fifth and went just 17-14 on the season.
Some of this is explainable with North Carolina. They were awful last year. They are probably not going to be awful again. I’m also expecting Miami to take a step forward this year, but that gets us to six potential tournament teams. And I don’t know if I’m really seeing anything beyond that.
PRESEASON ACC PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Sam Hauser, Virginia
Everything that can possibly be said about Sam Hauser I have already said. You can read the full, 3,000-word deep dive here. But if you’re only interested in what UVA did to get Hauser ready for their system during his redshirt season, check this piece out.
THE REST OF THE ACC FIRST TEAM
DAVID JOHNSON, Louisville: More on Johnson below.
SCOTTIE BARNES, Florida State: Barnes is everything that Leonard Hamilton has ever wanted in a basketball player and nothing you can say will change my mind. I think there’s a chance that he’s a top five pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
JALEN JOHNSON, Duke: If Duke is going to be reach their ceiling, then I think it will be because they are running their offense through Johnson at the four.
GARRISON BROOKS, North Carolina: Brooks is coming off of a season where he averaged 16.8 points, 8.5 boards and 2.0 assists. Was … was he actually UNC’s best player?
FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW
CHRIS LYKES, Miami
KIHEI CLARK, Virginia
CALEB LOVE, North Carolina
AAMIR SIMMS, Clemson
JAY HUFF, Virginia
BREAKOUT STAR: David Johnson, Louisville
I’m all aboard the David Johnson bandwagon.
A 6-foot-5 lead guard that is a terrific passer and a plus-defender, Johnson really came on down the stretch of the 2019-20 season after recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. He averaged nine points, four boards and four assists in his final 15 games, including a 19-point, seven-assist outburst in a win at Duke in January. He’s everything that an NBA team could ever ask for in a lead guard …
… except he can’t shoot.
The question that you need to ask is if those shooting issues were a result of being a bad shooter, or having reconstructive surgery on his shoulder. The answer, truthfully, is probably both, but I’m willing to bet on shooting to come around in most instances. I’ll be doing just that here.
COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Jim Christian, Boston College
One of the results of the COVID-era in college basketball has been that head coaches that would typically find themselves on the wrong side of the hot seat have managed to stick around for an extra season thanks to a lack of money to pay buyouts. Jim Christian may be the best example of this. Christian capped off a 13-19 season with a 7-13 mark in the ACC in his sixth season on Chestnut Hill. Think about this: Six seasons in, and he won seven games in a down ACC and tied his record for league wins with the Eagles.
And Christian is back for a seventh season despite never sniffing the bubble, let alone the NCAA tournament.
Now, there are reasons to have some hope this year. BC picked up a bunch of guys on the transfer market, and with a healthy Wynston Tabbs, there are enough new pieces here to at least provide a veil of promise. But if Christian couldn’t win with Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson, why should I buy him winning with this roster?
ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …
The ACC has five teams in the tournament and none of them are true title contenders. Is this now a football league?
I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT …
Seeing what Scottie Barnes can develop into. Players of his ilk tend to thrive in Tallahassee. I don’t think that he’ll be any different.
POWER RANKINGS
TIER 1 (favorites)
1. VIRGINIA: I’ve mostly talked about Sam Hauser in this space, so let me add this: The key to Virginia’s season is developing players at the two and the three. Will Tomas Woldetensae be able to do anything other than shoot? Will Casey Morsell be able to shoot, period? What kind of impact will Jabri Abdur-Rahim and Reece Beekman have?If two of those four develop into above-average starters for UVA this year, they are going to be really good.
2. DUKE: I laid out my case for Duke above. I really do think that they’re closer to being the best team in the ACC than they are to being in the same conversation as Louisville, UNC and Florida State.
TIER 2 (contenders)
3. FLORIDA STATE: Florida State has reached a point where I look at them the way that I look at Virginia. Bet on the system, especially when there is talent on the roster, and let Leonard Hamilton figure out how the chips will fall. I want all the Scottie Barnes stock. I think M.J. Walker will have an impact. I think Anthony Polite and RaiQuan Gray are ready for bigger roles. And I think that there are another 7-8 players that I’m not going to mention that will play big parts in this season. This is a really good team.
4. NORTH CAROLINA: I’ve said what I need to say about UNC already in this space. It’s hard not to fall in love with a Roy Williams team that has answers at the point and in the frontcourt, but I have visions of Andrew Platek dancing in my head. Yikes.
5. LOUISVILLE: The pieces fit the way I want to see pieces fit. They have two high-level lead guards that can play together. If David Johnson is making shots, both can play off the ball effectively. Samuell Williamson and Charles Mineland are the kind of versatile wings that the thrive in modern hoops. Malik Williams has developed into an effective five man. There are pieces on the bench. The question you have to ask is just how many of those players hit their ceiling. If they all do, Louisville can make a Final Four. If none do, Louisville could go 15-10.
TIER 3 (tournament tier)
6. MIAMI: I’m actually fairly bullish on the Hurricanes, all things considered. This looks like a tournament team to me. Chris Lykes is tiny, but he’s a bucket, and Kameron McGusty is a solid complimentary scoring option on the wing. I think the addition of five-star freshman Earl Timberlake and former Cincinnati center Nysier Brooks will help quite a bit — Timberlake can provide that versatility at the four, Brooks should be able to anchor a defense that has had some real issues in recent years — but for my money the key to the Hurricanes hitting their ceiling will be Isaiah Wong, Harland Beverly and the status of Elijah Olaniyi. Wong had a month-long stretch in the middle of the season where he looked like an all-ACC player. If he can be the guy that showed up in February, the Hurricanes have a shot.
TIER 4 (talking myself into them tier)
7. CLEMSON: I’ve slowly-but-surely talked myself into Clemson being good enough to finish in the top half of the ACC next season, and if I trusted them to be able to consistently make all the threes that they take, I’d have them slotted above Miami. I love Aamir Simms. He gave Duke and Vernon Carey fits last year. I think the guard trio of Al-Amir Dawes, John Newman and Nick Honor will be, at the very least, competitive. If Jonathan Baehre is healthy and P.J. Hall has the impact some expect, then suddenly this roster looks like one that can play some interesting small-ball lineups. But it all comes down to the shooting. They finished last season shooting the 19th-highest ratio of threes-to-field goal attempts despite shooting just 31 percent from three, good for 267th nationally.
8. VIRGINIA TECH: I have Virginia Tech slotted here because I trust in Mike Young more than anything else. He took a team that was the smallest and third-most inexperienced high-major roster in the country and beat Michigan State, beat North Carolina and won seven ACC games. Young’s offensive is predicated on having shooters that can run off of screens, and he has that in spades this year — Jalen Cone, Hunter Catoor, Naheim Alleyne. Getting some frontcourt reinforcements will help offset the loss of Landers Nolley and P.J. Horne, and Cartier Diarra should provide some defensive stability. This team is going to embrace the variance of chucking threes, and they’ll pick off some bigger teams because of it.
9. SYRACUSE: As someone that loves reckless three-point shooting, I want to love a backcourt of Joe Girard and Buddy Boeheim. My concern, however, is that this is essentially the same team that went 18-14 last season and was in line to miss out on the NCAA tournament, only they swapped out potential first round pick Elijah Hughes for Illinois transfer Alan Griffin. The Orange are not going to be good enough defensively in their zone with Girard and Buddy playing up top, and they lost their best weapon offensively. Even with Girard taking the sophomore leap, I have trouble seeing how they can win enough games to get a bid without a significant improvement on the defensive end of the floor.
10. GEORGIA TECH: A shoutout to the guys over at Three Man Weave for picking up on this stat: In the last 24 years, there have been two seasons where Georgia Tech finished above .500 in ACC play — 2004, the year they reached the Final Four, and last season. That’s astonishing. The good news is that they bring back a lot of the pieces from last year’s roster. The bad news is that they bring back all of the guys responsible for yet another dismal season offensively and lose their best rim protector in James Banks. Pastner, in his career, has proven to be a good defensive coach that is awful at devising schemes for efficient offense. Last year, Tech finished 171st in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and that was Pastner’s best finish at Tech.
11. NOTRE DAME: The best indicator of what the ACC was last season is the fact that Notre Dame got to 20 wins and a .500 record in the league. They now lose John Mooney, T.J. Gibbs and Rex Pfleuger, and I’m just not sure what is in the pipeline behind them. Prentiss Hubb is good, and allowing him to operate when the floor is spaced by shooters like Cormac Ryan, Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski should work, but I’m not buying the defense, the depth of the talent level. What I will say is that this is the year where Brey’s strong 2018 recruiting class become upper-classmen, and that’s always been the key to his success. So we’ll see. I just can’t buy into them yet.
12. N.C. STATE: It felt a bit like last year was the year for Keatts. He had his star point guard, he had a go-to scorer and he had a slew of guards and wings to rotate through. But with C.J. Bryce and Markell Johnson gone, I just don’t know what to expect from a team that doesn’t have anyone that will scare opposing coaching staffs and has never proven to be good enough defensively under Keatts.
TIER 5 (other guys tier)
13. PITT: The best news for Pitt is that while the rest of the league is improving, there is still a huge gap between the top five and the rest of the league. They can be competitive. I’m just not buying Capel as the guy to get them there. He’s have 11 seasons as a head coach at VCU, Oklahoma and Pitt. He’s finished better than 44th in KenPom just once, the year Blake Griffin won Player of the Year. He’s made just three tournaments. And he hasn’t had a team finish inside the top 100 since that year with Blake Griffin.
14. BOSTON COLLEGE: I said all I need to say about Boston College above.
TIER 6 (wake forest)
15. WAKE FOREST: They stink.
I am loving your conference previews, Rob!