The Rebound's Big East Preview

Is it Villanova and everyone else, or does Creighton have a shot at the title? What happens now that UConn is back in the league? Can Seton Hall and Marquette survive the loss of their superstars?

Oct 27, 2020

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THREE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. VILLANOVA IS STACKED AGAIN

You’re not going to believe this, but Villanova is going to be really, really good again.

A consensus top-three team nationally — and The Rebound’s preseason No. 1 team — the Wildcats have a very real chance to win their third national title in the last five NCAA tournaments, and that is despite the fact that they are going to be without Saddiq Bey, a potential lottery pick and their best player a season ago.

Collin Gillispie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are going to be the headliners here, as is Jermaine Samuels. Gillispie and JRE have All-American upside at the point and at the five. They’re not flashy, they’re just good. Samuels is the quintessential Villanova tweener, a junkyard dog that makes open shots, gives Jay Wright lineup versatility and exudes the Villanova ethos. They are the cornerstones of this year’s roster.

But there are a trio of guards that really make this team interesting: Justin Moore, Bryan Antoine and Caleb Daniels. Daniels is a transfer from Tulane that averaged 16.9 points as a sophomore. He’s now a redshirt junior that really fits the mold: He’s big, he can shoot and he can create. Justin Moore was arguably the most underrated freshman in the country last season after averaging 11.3 points while shooting 40 percent from three.

Antoine is the x-factor.

A former five-star recruit, Antoine struggled to break into the rotation as a freshman as he was dealing with the recovery from offseason shoulder surgery. Is he still the same player that he was when he committed?

This is going to be a weird college basketball season.

Betting on the safety of a well-coached, veteran roster makes a lot of sense to me.

2. LAST YEAR’S STAR-HEAVY LEAGUE DECIMATED BY DEPARTURES

There was not a conference in the country that had more big name star players that the Big East did.

And I’m not just talking about guys that were well known because they were highly-rated by the recruitniks.

Markus Howard and Myles Powell were bonafide college basketball All-Americans who developed into superstars over the course of their four-year careers. Kamar Baldwin was one of the most underrated players in the country. Ty-Shon Alexander was Creighton’s leading scorer and one of the best defenders in the country. Saddiq Bey. Naji Marshall. Hell, Mac McClung was probably the most famous player in the league a year ago.

They’re all gone.

Now, that doesn’t mean that it’s going to be a down year for the league. Villanova might win the title. Creighton is a top 20 team at minimum. Providence, Seton Hall, UConn, Marquette. We could be looking at six or seven tournament teams.

But the names are not going to be as recognizable.

3. UCONN’S BACK!

Six years after the Huskies were left out in the conference cold, UConn is returning home. It’s a move that was in the works for a while, and one that UConn fans had been clamoring for since the day the program left to create rivalries with the likes of South Florida, Tulsa and SMU.

And the best news of all is that the Huskies are going to have their most talented team in the Danny Hurley era.

It’s starts with James Bouknight, a scintillating athlete with three-point range that really came on strong at the end of his freshman season. He’ll be joined on UConn’s perimeter by Howard transfer R.J. Cole and Rhode Island transfer Tyrese Martin, the latter of whom was recently cleared to play this season. Throw in Brendan Adams, Jalen Gaffney and Andre Jackson, and there are quite a few pieces at Hurley’s disposal in the backcourt.

Up front is more of a question mark, as there are some real injury concerns. Akok Akok is a terrific defensive presence when healthy, but he is coming off of a torn achilles. Tyler Polley is a lights-out shooter, but he’s coming off of a torn ACL. Neither Josh Carlton or Isaiah Whaley really fit the mold of what a Hurley five plays like, and Adama Sonogo is promising but a freshman that is reclassifying.

The potential is there. Hurley’s best teams at URI had versatile guards, athletes all over the floor, depth and shot-making. This team has all of those traits, plus a potential lottery pick.

They’ve got a chance.

THREE THINGS WE NEED TO FIND OUT

1. CAN CREIGHTON REPLACE TY-SHON ALEXANDER?

I understand why Ty-Shon Alexander made the decision to enter his name into the NBA draft. He may not end up getting picked in the first round, or even in the second round, but I do think that he is going to end up on an NBA roster somewhere next season. He’s a 6-foot-4 shotmaker that was arguably the best perimeter defender in the Big East last season. He can play on the ball. He shot 40 percent from three and 86 percent from the line. Guys that can do all of those things tend to stick.

I’m past the point of criticizing adults for making what they believe is the best decision for them.

That said, this sucks for Creighton, and for college basketball.

With Alexander back, this is a top five team. Maybe top three. They’d have the best backcourt in the sport on their roster — Marcus Zegarowski is our Big East Preseason Player of the Year, and he might not have been Creighton’s best player last season — with enough help on the way on the interior to make up for what they lacked a year ago.

But without Alexander, not only are the Bluejays losing a shot-maker, but they are losing the guy that would take their toughest defensive assignment on a nightly basis.

How do they replace that?

2. WAS THE PROVIDENCE OF THE LAST MONTH OF 2020 THE REAL PROVIDENCE?

Growing up in New England, everyone knows someone with a story about a night out in Providence.

A guy I played ball with had his nose broken when someone punched him in the face through his car window. When I say through, I mean the guy punched out the glass window before punching him in the face. My college girlfriend and her friends were stranded there one night because the car their car was stolen.

They get after it in that city. I respect it.

Ed Cooley had a Providence night too many times at the start of last season.

They lost to Northwestern, Penn, Long Beach State and Charleston during the first month of the season. But things turned around, as they won eight of their last ten — including wins over all five of the Big East’s ranked teams — in the final month of last season, earning their way back onto the bubble.

This year, the Friars will be without Luwane Pipkins or Alpha Diallo. But they do return Nate Watson and David Duke, the latter of whom may be the most underrated player in the Big East, while bringing in St. Joe’s transfer Jared Bynum to handle the point guard duties. Throw in the potential of Brycen Goodine and Ed Crosswell getting eligible, and there are things to like about the Friars.

But that depends on three things, I think: A.J. Reeves finding some level of consistency; Providence finding some level of consistency; and Jared Bynum finding some level of consistency. If they play like they did in the last month of the season, they’ll finish top three in the league.

3. WHICH TRANSFER GUARD CAN PLAY A STARRING ROLE?

The two biggest names in the Big East last season were Markus Howard and Myles Powell.

Both were seniors.

That means that the two biggest voids on Big East rosters this season are the ones left by … Markus Howard and Myles Powell. Plot twist!

The two guys nominated for those jobs: Ohio State transfer D.J. Carton and Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken.

And as weird as it may sound, I think Carton will have it easier at Marquette than Aiken will at Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles are going to essentially be the same kind of team this season that they were last season. They are going to play pace and space. They are going to let their guards rock. They are going to put the ball in the hands of Carton and Koby McEwen and ask them to make shit happen. Carton, in theory, can do all of that.

Aiken, on the other hand, is going to be asked to fill the void left by Powell for a team that is going to be built entirely differently. Powell was the heart and soul of that Seton Hall team, but Kevin Willard also has to replace Romaro Gill — an anchor at the rim — and Quincy McKnight — one of the best on-ball defenders in the country. That trio really established Seton Hall’s identity as a punch-you-in-the-face defensive monster. Aiken should be able to do some of the things that Powell did offensively. But can a team with Tokol Mason and Sandro Mamukelashvili at the one and the five, respectively, play anywhere near the level of defense that the Pirates did last season?

PRESEASON BIG EAST PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Marcus Zegarowski, Creighton

As much as I want to go with a Villanova player in this spot, it’s hard to know who, exactly, is going to end up being the best player on that roster.

It’s not hard to figure out that Zegarowski is going to be the best player on the Bluejays this season.

A year removed from putting up 16.1 points, 5.0 assists and 3.8 boards while shooting 42 percent from three, Zegarowski is going to be the engine that makes Creighton’s offense run. And rest assured, their offense humming matters. Creighton was not a good defensive team last year, and that was with Alexander on the roster. They are going to have to win games by being elite offensively, and I think they will.

Because Zegarowski is that good.

THE REST OF THE BIG EAST FIRST TEAM

COLLIN GILLISPIE, Villanova: I’ve really grown to appreciate just how good Collin Gillispie is. He’s not Ryan Arcidiacono or Jalen Brunson — I don’t think that he’ll end up being a longtime NBA player — but he is a quintessential Villanova point guard.
JAMES BOUKNIGHT, UConn: We’ll talk more about Book Night below.
JEREMIAH ROBINSON-EARL, Villanova: Robinson-Earl is one of the guys that returned to school when he could have been picked in the NBA draft. He’s a potential double-double machine with the ability to space the floor as well.
DAVID DUKE, Providence: Duke is coming off of a season where he averaged 12.0 points, 4.2 boards, 3.1 assists and 1.5 blocks while shooting 42 percent from three. Is he the most underrated player in the conference?

FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW

SANDRO MAMUKELASHVILI, Seton Hall
D.J. CARTON, Marquette
QUDUS WAHAB, Georgetown
MITCHELL BALLOCK, Creighton
JUSTIN MOORE, Villanova

BREAKOUT STAR: James Bouknight, UConn

Some of you may bristle at the idea of calling James Bouknight a “breakout star.” He averaged 13.0 points and 4.1 boards as a freshman. He averaged 15.3 points in AAC play. He was named third-team all-AAC. In the final 13 games of the season, he averaged 17.1 points. The “breakout” already happened, didn’t it?

To a point, yes.

All of the NBA draft nerds and college basketball wonks know who James Bouknight is. College basketball fans at large? Not yet, but they will. I think Bouknight has a real chance to play his way into being an All-American this season. This is the year when Bouknight’s star power comes to the forefront, which is why he’ll be a “breakout star” after having a “breakout season.”

(See how I did that? Semantics’d my way into calling Bouknight an American Hero? That’s why you subscribe.)

COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Patrick Ewing, Georgetown

Last year was supposed to the breakout year for the Georgetown Hoyas. Ewing had himself a roster that was headlined by two star guards, a slew of talented wings and enough big bodies to find a way to make it work. But then James Akinjo and Josh LeBlanc were kicked out of the program, reporters discovered three of the players on the Georgetown roster had legal issues hanging over their heads, injuries took their toll and, by the time Mac McClung announced that he was transferring out of the program, not much was left.

Now, to be clear, I don’t think the issue here is “Patrick Ewing can’t coach.” The Hoyas looked like a team that could push for a tournament spot before the wheels fell off. This is a question about whether or not Ewing is can handle the day-to-day of running a program filled with college kids. And he may be — the collapse wasn’t all his fault — but it did happen on his watch. At some point, we’re going to have to ask if he is, in fact, the right man for this job.

ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …

Villanova is the favorite to win their third title in six seasons. They would be the first program to do that since John Wooden was the coach at UCLA. Not bad, Jay Wright, not bad.

I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT …

UConn’s return to the Big East. I am, admittedly, somewhat biased here as someone that grew up in the state of Connecticut. But I do think that bringing the Huskies back home is a good thing for the sport as a whole.

POWER RANKINGS

TIER 1 (favorites)

1. VILLANOVA: The Wildcats are the best team in the country. So yes, they are the best team in the Big East.

TIER 2 (contenders)

2. CREIGHTON: I’m a fan of the Bluejays this season, but without Alexander on the roster, I can’t justify having them in the same tier as Villanova. They are, however, the clear-cut second-best team in the league. I love Zegarowski; the trio of Ballock, Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney will provide all kinds of problematic lineups to defend; and there are enough potential fives that I trust one of them will work out. Throw in Rati Andronikashvili, and Gregg McDermott should have another fun team in Omaha.

TIER 3 (tournament tier)

3. UCONN: Danny Hurley’s best teams at Rhode Island were ones that were loaded with talented, athletic shot-makers in the backcourt and a deep, versatile frontline. UConn has the former. If healthy, they have the latter. Bouknight is the headliner, but I think that the key to this team will end up being just how well R.J. Cole transitions from MEAC chucker to Big East lead guard.

4. MARQUETTE: On paper, I really like this Marquette team. I think Carton-McEwen has some real Howard-Andrew Rowsey vibes in terms of pairing a couple of shotmaking lead guards in a backcourt. Symir Torrance has some potential, as does Greg Elliot, and Theo John is one of the better defensive fives in college hoops as he heads into his 17th season at Marquette. Dawson Garcia brings everything together as a modern four. The big question I have, beyond Garcia’s impact, will be Carton. His departure was, shall we say, supported by the Ohio State staff. It’s not a coincidence that they went 3-6 in the Big Ten with Carton and 8-3 in the Big Ten without him. So this ranking? It’s assuming that Good DJ shows up. If Good DJ doesn’t make it in Milwaukee, the Golden Eagles will be slotted in the bottom of this tier.

5. SETON HALL: I’m a believer in Kevin Willard, and I think that Mamu will have a chance to be one of the breakout stars of this year’s Big East season, but as I touched on earlier, I have two real concerns about the Pirates that have nothing to do with Myles Powell: Will Bryce Aiken stay healthy, and what will their identity be this year?

6. PROVIDENCE: I love David Duke. I am a fan of Nate Watson. I think Ed Cooley is a hell of a coach despite the fact that his team was fully bi-polar last season. But I am a little lower on them than the consensus because I am concerned about the point guard spot. So much of what Cooley does centers on having a star at the point. Jared Bynum has had a redshirt season with the program after a good freshman year at St. Joe’s. But I need to see it to fully buy-in. If Bynum comes good, the Friars will be ranked in and around the top 25 most of the year. If he doesn’t, they’re going to be scrapping for an at-large bid.

TIER 4 (talking myself into them tier)

7. XAVIER: Losing Naji Marshall after his junior season is a huge blow. There would have been an argument for Marshall to be the Big East Preseason Player of the Year had he returned. Without him, there’s not a lot on this roster to be scared of. Is Paul Scruggs going to be able to carry them? That’s what they are counting on. They’ll be a tough out because Travis Steele is a good enough coach and there are some solid young pieces on this roster, but I do think that it will be an uphill battle for them to get to the NCAA tournament.

8. DEPAUL: I’m cautiously optimistic on the Blue Demons. I can squint and see a team that could push for .500 in the league despite losing Jalen Coleman-Lands and Paul Reed. Charlie Moore is back, and he’ll have the pressure for creating offensively taken off of him with the addition of Ray Salnave and, most importantly, Javon Freeman-Liberty. Now, this is the key: Freeman-Liberty needs a waiver to be eligible this season. Assuming that guys are going to get waivers is a safe bet this offseason, and the Valpo transfer has legitimate NBA upside. Without him eligible, this group is … not eighth.

TIER 5 (other guys tier)

9. ST. JOHN’S: Losing the scoring pop of Mustapha Heron and L.J. Figueroa is going to be a difficult thing for the Johnnies to overcome. I am interested in what Posh Alexander can end up being — with that name, he’s absolutely has to be a star, no other option — and I do think the system will be able to buoy the Johnnies to a point, but there just isn’t enough scoring pop here.

10. BUTLER: What is there to be excited about on this roster? There are a lot of quality pieces, I’ll give you that. Aaron Thompson can do a job as a ball-hawk. The Bryces — Nze and Golden — would be the best frontcourt in the Horizon League, but I’m not sure that’s the case in the Big East. Will Jair Bolden be all that much more impactful at Butler than he was at South Carolina (8.5 ppg, 1.4 apg)? Losing players like Kamar Baldwin, Sean McDermott and Jordan Tucker without have the talent in the pipeline to replace them is hard.

11. GEORGETOWN: No need to beat a dead horse here. I am excited to see what Qudus Wahab will turn into.

The Rebound