The Rebound's Big 12 Preview
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THREE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
1. BAYLOR IS THE HEALTHIEST PROGRAM IN AMERICA
I know the weight of what I’m about to say. Trust me when I tell you that I am not saying it lightly: There is no program in the country that is better set up for success, both in the short term and in the future, than the Baylor Bears.
And trust me when I tell you this as well: I never, in my wildest dreams, thought that I would reach a point where that was something that I would say.
I mean, this is Baylor, dammit. How many jokes have we fired off about Scott Drew’s coaching ability over the years? Thousands? Millions?
And yet, here we on in the lead-up to the 2020-21 college basketball season, and the Baylor Bears are one of the consensus top three teams in America.
The reason why is not really a secret at this point, is it? The Bears bring back six of their top nine players from last year’s rotation. One of the players they lose — Freddie Gillespie — will have his spot filled by Tristan Clark, the guy that was the best player in the program prior to a knee injury he suffered in 2018-19. The other player they lose is Devonte Bandoo, whose buckets-off-the-bench role can be filled by Matthew Mayer, a gunner that embodies the feels-like-leather ethos I adore in a basketball player.
But the biggest news was the decision of Jared Butler and MaCio Teague to return to school. Butler is a guy that had a chance to hear his name called in the 2020 NBA Draft and the best shot-creator on this Baylor roster. He’s a first-team All-American in my book. Getting him back was a game-changer, but keeping Teague around matters almost as much. Baylor’s offense could dry up at times last year. Teague was their second-leading scorer and second-best floor-spacer. They need his scoring.
The Bears also returned arguably the two-best defenders in all of college basketball in Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital. Mitchell is a monster on the ball. Vital is a 6-foot-5 wrecking ball that can guard 1-through-5. Throw in Adam Flagler, who has gotten rave reviews, as well as freshmen L.J. Cryer and Jordan Turner, and there are just so many weapons and different looks Drew can go with. Personally, I cannot wait to see him role out lineups with four guards and Vital at the five. That will be fun.
But it goes beyond just the players on this current roster. Drew has been as good as any coach in America at identifying the pieces that will fit his program and developing players once they get to campus. There’s always a guy down the bench that’s ready to contribute in a big way when his name his called. And should I mention that they have a pair of five-stars committed for the 2021 class?
This is the first time in the history of the Big 12 where I will pick a team other than Kansas to win the league.
To answer your question, no, I haven’t been drinking.
2. CADE CUNNINGHAM IS THE BEST PLAYER IN AMERICA
First things first: Oklahoma State’s postseason ban is total and utter horseshit. I’m not going to rehash why. It’s all laid out here. But trust me. It’s horseshit.
Now that that’s out of the way, the most disappointing part about that ruling is that, if it’s not overturned on appeal, it means we won’t see Cade Cunningham in the NCAA tournament. And if you are a fan of basketball, you should want to see Cade Cunningham in the NCAA tournament.
Because he’s special.
A 6-foot-7, 230 pound point guard, Cunningham is precisely the kind of shot-creator that NBA teams are clamoring to start building their roster around. There are going to be people calling him the Next Luka Doncic at some point. The size, the passing ability, the basketball intellect. He’s got it all, and if I had more confidence in the pieces around him on Oklahoma State’s roster, Cunningham would be a shoe-in for my Preseason National Player of the Year award.
The major concern I have with the Pokes this season is that there isn’t going to be enough shooting around Cunningham to allow the thing that he does best — making the right decision to get the best possible shot on a possession — to shine. Put another way, I think Cunningham is the kind of player that needs to have options to pass to in order to be completely effective, and if Mike Boynton’s roster doesn’t have the capability to create the spacing to give Cunningham those options, it may be limiting.
Now, Cunningham may just be good enough that it doesn’t matter. And some of the players around him — Isaac Likeleke, Ferron Flavors, Matthew Alexander-Moncrieffe, etc. — may find a way to start hitting shots.
And even if they don’t, Cunningham is good enough to go full Greg Jennings and put da team on his back, doe.
3. KANSAS? YEAH, THEY’RE LOADED, TOO
There were a lot of reasons to be upset about the COVID-cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Obi Toppin had a chance to do something that will never be replicated at Dayton. The same can be said about Malachi Flynn and San Diego State. Baylor’s best chance (to date) at winning a national title was wiped out.
But we also missed out on the country’s overwhelming title favorite — your Kansas Jayhawks — having a chance to win a title in a season that was more or less a middle finger at the NCAA. If Bill Self was willing to bring out Snoop Dogg and exotic dancers with money guns for Midnight Madness, what would he have done on the heels of a national title?
It’s devastating that we’ll never know.
And unfortunately, the All-American brackets of that team — point guard Devon Dotson and center Udoka Azubuike — are both gone. That’s tough.
There are, however, plenty of reasons to get behind this group. They do have some really good pieces and potential pros. There is some depth on the roster. There are some young guys with breakout potential.
But to me, the most interesting thing about this team is that Kansas will likely have a rotation of six or seven wings that are all in the 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-7 range that can guard multiple positions and play different spots on the floor. Between Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, Tyon Grant-Foster and Bryce Thompson, there is talent here that can be used in creative ways to build a nightmarish defense. It will look different than what Kansas did last year, but the potential is there.
My question is what happens at the other end. Dotson and Doke were hardly the most well-rounded offensive weapons, but their individual strengths — Dot’s blow-by-ability and Doke’s vertical spacing — created openings and moved defenses. You had to plan for that as an opposing coach. I don’t know what you need to plan for with this group.
But I trust Bill Self. I think he’ll figure something out. And with how good I think Kansas will be defensively, I’m willing to buy in.
THREE THINGS WE NEED TO FIND OUT
1. HOW WILL SHAKA MANAGE A ROSTER THAT GOES 13 DEEP?
Texas is one of the five-most interesting basketball teams in the country to me. There are so many different storylines, so many different ways this season could play out, and such an odd concern with this roster that I’m just fascinated by it all.
So what’s the issue with the Longhorns: They have too much talent, too many bodies, too many guys that are going to deserve minutes.
Texas had a weird 2019-20 season. They won nine of their first ten games. They lost nine of their next 15 games. They were sitting at 14-11 overall and 4-8 in the Big 12 before reeling off five straight wins and putting themselves squarely on the bubble, where a win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament quarters would have gotten them into the NCAA tournament and gotten some of the heat off of Shaka’s seat.
That turnaround came as a result of Texas dealing with some injuries. Their rotation shrank, there wasn’t anyone sulking because they weren’t playing and the result was Texas playing their best and most competitive basketball of the season.
Let me put this into perspective: Texas had 11 players start at least one game. All 12 players that saw minutes last season are back, and the Longhorns just so happened to add a top ten recruit and the best player in the state in Greg Brown.
They have 13 guys on this roster that deserve minutes.
How do you keep everyone happy?
Is it even possible?
2. HAS TEXAS TECH SOLVED THEIR POINT GUARD CONUNDRUM?
The biggest issue that the Red Raiders had a season ago was that they couldn’t figure out their lead guard situation. Jahmi’Us Ramsey was their best player, but he had more or less morphed into a shooter by the end of the season. Davide Moretti was a useful piece, a good team defender and knockdown shooter, but he wasn’t going to be breaking down defenses. The staff kept waiting for Kyler Edwards to make the leap and become the consistent presence they needed him to be. They were waiting, and waiting, and waiting.
This year, we still have some of those same questions. I do think that Edwards is going to be better as a junior. He’s going to have to be in the Red Raiders are going to reach their ceiling. Nimari Burnett should be able to lessen some of that burden given his combo-abilities, and if Mac McClung can get eligible, he becomes a third option.*
*(After this story was posted, McClung was ruled eligible.)
Chris Beard has some talent at his disposal. Terrence Shannon has a chance to be a breakout star, and the combination of Joel Ntambwe and Marcus Santos-Silva should program some physicality inside. But the key Beard’s two best teams in Lubbock were his guards. He had Keenan Evans and Jarrett Culver in 2018, and he had Culver and Matt Mooney in 2019.
Can Burnett and Edwards live up to those expectations?
3. CAN WEST VIRGINIA MAKE THEIR OFFENSE EXIST AGAIN?
There’s a certain beauty in just how ugly West Virginia basketball was last season.
Some of the numbers are just hilarious. They were third-nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 11th in defensive three-point percentage and forced turnovers on 22 percent of their opponent’s possessions. They were also 308th in effective field goal percentage, 297th in turnover rate, 338th in three-point shooting and 334th in free throw shooting.
But they still ranked 67th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Why?
Because they led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and finished top 25 in free throw rate.
There’s a saying in basketball: “Their best offense is a missed shot.” Well, West Virginia’s only offense was missing a shot and trying to get a rebound. And they were good at it!
Things will not change this year. Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver are both back. That’s the engine that makes Glass Virginia run. But if the Mountaineers are going to have a real shot at getting to a Final Four or winning the Big 12, they are going to need Miles McBride to make a major leap as a sophomore, and JuCo transfer Kedrian Johnson to have an immediate impact. They need bucket-getters, and they need a reason to get Jordan McCabe off the floor.
PRESEASON BIG 12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
Cade Cunningham would be the Preseason National Player of the Year if Oklahoma State had a real chance to be a top four seed in the NCAA tournament. I don’t think they do, so he’s a lowly Preseason first-team All-American.
That will get you Big 12 Player of the Year honors.
THE REST OF THE BIG 12 FIRST TEAM
JARED BUTLER, Baylor: Butler is the best player on the best team in the league. For my money, he is a first-team All-American. I could craft a pretty strong argument that he should be the Big 12 Player of the Year.
MARCUS GARRETT, Kansas: Garrett may just be the best defensive player in college basketball. He’s a monster on that end. The key to the Kansas season, however, is going to be their point guard play. Garrett will likely end up being their starter. If he can handle the job, the Jayhawks could win the league.
MACIO TEAGUE, Baylor: Playing for a program that needs scorers and shooters, Teague provides exactly that. He averaged 13.9 points and shot 36 percent from three as a junior.
OSCAR TSHIEBWE, West Virginia: Tshiebwe is the perfect center for the way that West Virginia wants to play. He’s a big, physical defensive menace that is terrific on the glass. He’s the best anchor you could ask for on a team built around defense and rebounding.
FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW
OCHAI AGBAJI, Kansas
AUSTIN REAVES, Oklahoma
GREG BROWN, Texas
NIMARI BURNETT, Texas Tech
TERRENCE SHANNON, Texas Tech
BREAKOUT STAR: Terrence Shannon, Texas Tech
Shannon is an intriguing talent that fits pretty well into the mold of players with breakout potential: He played just 54 percent of Texas Tech’s minutes last season, but he was their second-highest usage player behind Jahmi’Us Ramsey. A toolsy wing that is something of a late-bloomer, Shannon had some moments as a freshman that piqued the interest of NBA evaluators.
Now, I don’t think this is going to be a Jarrett Culver situation. Culver had on-ball ability. Shannon’s offensive repertoire is something of an unknown at this point. But I do think that he has the talent to have the kind of season where he sneaks into the back-end of the 2021 NBA Draft’s first round.
COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Shaka Smart, Texas
Shaka has really struggled to get things going at Texas. Hired to replace Rick Barnes five years ago, Shaka has reached just two NCAA tournaments; this past season, Texas was one of the teams situated directly on the bubble. He has a 90-78 career record and is sitting at just 40-50 in Big 12 play. That’s not going to get it done when he’s had the talent that he’s been able to amass.
This should be his best team in Austin. It’s not going to be easy, but Shaka is running out of both excuses and buyout dollars to disincentivize the Longhorns making a change. As I said above, Texas is one of the five most fascinating teams in college basketball this year.
ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …
Baylor is the national title favorite. If they win the NCAA tournament, then Scott Drew will cap off the single-greatest building job in the history of the sport.
I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT …
Cade Cunningham.
That’s it.
That’s the tweet. (Or the sentence. Or whatever. Look, he’s really fucking good, OK?)
POWER RANKINGS
TIER 1 (favorites)
1. BAYLOR: What else is there to say about Baylor that I haven’t said yet?
The Bears are going to be a juggernaut defensively, they have a legitimate All-American to build an offense around and they are getting Tristan Clark back, hopefully to 100 percent.
Scott Drew, national champion?
2. KANSAS: Kansas is Kansas, and I’m really into what this team can be on the defensive end of the floor given the talent and versatility they have on the perimeter. For my money, the key is going to be the way that Bryce Thompson and Tyon Grant-Foster adjust to playing at this level. One of them needs to develop into a real threat offensively, something that will force opposing coaches to change what they do. Because I’m not sure Bill Self actually has that right now.
TIER 2 (contenders)
3. TEXAS TECH: It’s the Chris Beard factor. We know that the Red Raiders are going to be one of the nation’s elite defenses because that’s just what they do under Beard. And there are enough potential weapons offensively — Kyler Edwards, Terrence Shannon, Nimari Burnett, Kevin McCullar, Mac McClung if he gets eligible — that you have to figure one of them comes good.
4. WEST VIRGINIA: As Dennis Green said, “they are what we thought they were.” It may not be Press Virginia, and it certainly is not going to be pretty, but West Virginia is going to win a lot of games as the nation’s most physical defense and best rebounding team. Be ready for a fistfight.
TIER 3 (tournament tier)
5. TEXAS: I’m not sure what else there is to say about Texas that I haven’t already said. Matt Coleman is an all-Big 12 player. Greg Brown is going to be a lottery pick. They have a ton of length up front — Jericho Sims, Gerald Liddell, Kai Jones, Royce Hamm — and enough talent in the backcourt — Courtney Ramey, Andrew Jones, Jase Febres, Donovan Williams — to roll out two teams that can compete in the league. The hardest part about this season is going to be how Shaka balances egos.
6. OKLAHOMA STATE: The Cowboys are going to go as far as Cade Cunningham can carry them. Losing Yor Anei will hurt, but Isaac Likekele, Ferron Flavors and Matthew Alexander-Moncrieffe are all good enough to do a job and get Mike Boynton into a place where, if eligible, they can get into the dance.
TIER 4 (talking myself into them tier)
7. OKLAHOMA: Brady Manek has the best hair-mustache combination in college hoops. De’Vion Harmon should be in line for a big sophomore season. I’m looking forward to seeing what Kur Kuath can be playing more minutes. But none of it is going to matter if Austin Reaves keeps shooting six threes per game at a 26 percent clip. That’s just not going to be good enough, not for a guy that shot 45 percent on 182 attempts in two seasons in Wichita.
TIER 5 (other guys tier)
8. IOWA STATE: After Tyrese Haliburton broke his wrist, Iowa State went 2-6 down the stretch. That would be worrisome if the Cyclones weren’t 3-7 with Haliburton healthy. One of those wins was the game Haliburton got hurt. I say all that to say this: In theory, this feels like a lost cause. But there is enough random talent assorted on this roster — Rasir Bolton, Tyler Harris, Jalen Coleman-Lands, Blake Hinson, Solomon Young — that you can’t really right them off.
This feels like the JV version of the 2018-19 team, the one that had top ten talent and finished the year 23-12, 9-9 in the Big 12 and knocked out of the dance in the first round. But instead of having a bunch of pros and all-league players, this year’s team has a bunch of guys that will be looking to land a deal in Kazahkstan when they’re done in Ames.
9. KANSAS STATE: The Bruce Weber roller coaster ride has been something else.
He reached the NCAA tournament in each of his first two seasons in Manhattan. He missed the dance in 2015 and 2016, but the subsequent three years were about as good as it can get for the Wildcats. They made the 2017 tournament. They made the 2018 Elite Eight. They (checks notes) *ended Kansas’ string of Big 12 titles*. That feels important.
And I think it’s worth mentioning here. Because the Wildcats are going to be bad. They went 3-15 in the Big 12 last season, and there isn’t much on this roster to talk about this year. So keep that in mind as you fire up those pitchforks and come for his job.
10. TCU: The Horned Frogs finished last season 16-16, easily the worst season that they have produced in the Jamie Dixon era. That came despite starting out the season 12-3 overall and 3-0 in the Big 12. What should we make of a team that lost 13 of their last 17 games and sent Desmond Bane, a potential first round pick, off to the NBA?