The Rebound's Big Ten Preview
The Rebound's Big Ten Preview
Can Iowa defend well enough to win the league? How good is Ayo Dosunmu going to be? Are we buying Wisconsin after their finish? What's left at Michigan State?
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THREE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
1. THE BIG TEN IS THE BEST LEAGUE IN THE COUNTRY AGAIN
The Big Ten is such an interesting league.
On the one hand, there is no conference in college basketball that is more competitive. None. Not even close. Last year, there were 12 teams that were in the mix for an NCAA tournament berth. All 12 ranked in the top 35 on KenPom. Minnesota finished under .500 on the season and yet they were 27th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. They finished 12th in the league, just six games out of first place. That’s wild.
(I actually felt bad for Nebraska and Northwestern by the end of the year. At least they had each other. It’s not fun to be the only team that gets the shit kicked out of you every night.)
Back to the point, the conference is going to be just as good and just as deep this year. The balance of power is going to be different — I’m not sure I’m ready for a season where Illinois and Iowa are battling it out for Big Ten supremacy — but the quality up and down the projected standings is wild.
The biggest thing that helped the league is that so many NBA prospects came back to school. The biggest names are Luka Garza and Ayo Dosunmu. But Kofi Cockburn also came back, as did Trayce Jackson-Davis. Marcus Carr, Aaron Henry, Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner.
Continuity is king in college basketball, and it really does feel like the Big Ten is the King of Continuity in 2020-21.
2. ILLINOIS IS THE BEST TEAM IN THE BIG TEN
I understand the hesitancy of some to fully back the Illini. I did the same thing with Seton Hall last season. Illinois essentially returns the exact same core from last year’s team, and that squad was, at best, a back-end top 25 team. If they’re essentially running it back — without Alan Griffin, mind you — what’s all the hype about?
Well, for starters, Kofi Cockburn is in line for the sophomore bump. A 6-foot-11, 290 pound center, COH-burn (yeah, I know) averaged 13.3 points, 8.8 boards and 1.4 blocks as a freshman. More importantly, he improved as the season went along. Cockburn will never be a mobile big, but he got better against ball-screens as the year went along. Udoka Azubuike was, at one point, an utter liability. He developed into the best defensive player in college basketball last season.
That’s the main reason. Cockburn has lots of room to improve, and he was already pretty damn good.
But I also think that Ayo Dosunmu can get better.
Already one of the most cold-blooded bucket-getters in the sport, Dosunmu finished his sophomore season shooting just 29 percent from three after returning to school to prove that he had developed his shooting stroke. I spoke with him last month. Despite the pandemic that gripped the nation, Dosunmu was never without a gym to workout in or a hoop to get shots up on. He, too, has room to grow still, and I already had him slotted as a first-team All-American next year.
Brad Underwood also bolstered this roster. Adam Miller is a top 30 recruit that will have an impact immediately. Andre Curbelo will be able to spell Trent Frazier at the point. Transfers Jacob Grandison (from Holy Cross) and Austin Hutcherson (from D-III Wesleyan) are both 6-foot-6 shooters that can fill Griffin’s minutes and production.
Perhaps most importantly, Underwood has shown an ability to adapt to his roster. He didn’t press last season. He didn’t sell out to force turnovers. They finished outside the top 300 in turnover rate and inside the top 25 in defensive foul rate. Usually those rankings are flipped for an Underwood team.
I’m in on this group, so much so that when they were 50-1 to win the national title the day Dosunmu announced his return, I invested.
LFG.
3. MICHIGAN STATE LOSING XAVIER TILLMAN IS CRUSHING
I understand why Xavier Tillman turned pro. I support his decision to turn pro. If he would have asked me what I thought he should do, I would have told him to take the degree that he has already earned and head to the NBA, where he should be a first round pick. He’s already married with two kids. Diapers ain’t cheap, my guy.
But it really does suck for Michigan State.
Tillman put up impressive numbers as a junior, but his impact on that roster goes well beyond the numbers. He was a veteran, mature leader in that locker room. He was the voice that everyone heard on the defensive end of the floor, barking out screens and switches and coverages. He was the best passing big man in the Big Ten, a perfect complement to Cassius Winston in Michigan State’s ball-screen offense. He would have been the perfect playmaker to take the pressure off of Rocket Watts next season.
I still do very much believe that the Spartans are still a top 15 team. Rocket Watts had enough impressive performances down the stretch of last season for me to buy into the idea that he has some real breakout potential. Aaron Henry has been crying out for a larger role for two years. Joey Hauser would have been such a good fit at the four for Sparty last season that Tom Izzo whined and cried and threw a hissy fit when he wasn’t cleared to play. Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham should be ready realize their potential. Sophomore Malik Brown and Julius Marble and freshmen Mady Sissoko and A.J. Hoggard have had some buzz already. Throw in the return of Josh Langford, and there are a lot of pieces here to like.
And if they had Tillman, their cornerstone, back, they would be an easy team to slot into my top five nationally.
THREE THINGS WE NEED TO FIND OUT
1. CAN IOWA DEFEND?
I’m not going to rehash all of this in this space.
I wrote 3,000 words for subscribers on Iowa’s defense (or lack thereof) for the subscribers back in September. That can be found right here. If you’re not a subscriber (it’s just $7 a month, what are you even doing?), then you can tap into an excerpt right here.
2. IS WISCONSIN ACTUALLY GOOD?
The Badgers had such a weird 2019-20 season.
They started it off with losses to Saint Mary’s, Richmond, New Mexico and N.C. State in non-conference play, and by the end of January, they were sitting with a 13-10 record overall, a 6-6 mark in the Big Ten and a spot in every bubble conversation as Greg Gard’s name started creeping up the hot seat list.
And then they never lost again.
The Badgers reeled off eight straight to close out the regular season, finishing in a four-way tie for first in the Big Ten standings and earning what would have been the No. 1-seed in the Big Ten tournament.
Should I mention that they bring back everyone except for Brevin Pritzl from the team that closed the season no that run?
So what is it?
Did Wisconsin happen to find lightening in a bottle down the stretch? Did Gard figure out a way to effectively play both Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers, two centers that double as his two-best players, major minutes? Did the Badgers rally around each other as the media (ahem, me) took shots at them over the departures and the habit that Brad Davison has for hitting opponents in the nuts?
Or did Wisconsin simply take advantage of a mediocre schedule down the stretch in a league where there wasn’t a dominant team? Of the eight wins to close out their season, five of them came at home with one of the road trips being Nebraska. And while they did beat six KenPom top 35 teams in those eight games, I’d argue the only truly noteworthy victories were Ohio State at home and at Michigan.
The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle.
Wisconsin unquestionably played their best basketball down the stretch, and there’s no doubt that part of the reason was Potter getting accustomed to his new surroundings; he only got eligible for the second semester. If that continues this season, Wisconsin is going to be really good.
That said, there are some weird spots on this roster. Like I mentioned, finding a way to pair Potter and Reuvers together in the frontcourt probably only works in the Big Ten, where every team has a standout, throwback five and the basketball is played like it’s still 1997. I’m also a little concerned about the loss of Pritzl, who was a good shooter, Wisconsin’s best cutter and a guy where there isn’t a perfect replacement for him. Put another way, D’Mitrik Trice and Davison are going to start in the backcourt. Potter, Reuvers and Aleem Ford re going to make up the frontcourt rotation, along with Tyler Wahl.
Do we have an answer for who is going to be the third guard? Will Ford try to be Nigel Hayes? Is Trevor Anderson ready to step into a starting role?
Those two things are going to determine whether or not Wisconsin is a good Big Ten team, or a legitimate title contender.
3. WHO COMES OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE LEAGUE?
I think the top four in the league is pretty straight-forward: Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa in whatever order you want to put them in.
After that, it gets messy.
I mean, look, I would not be all that surprised if, say, Purdue missed the NCAA tournament or if Minnesota found a way to get to the Sweet 16. There are a lot of moving parts in the middle of the Big Ten, which is to say that someone from that tier is going to end up being good.
Who?
I have some guesses (Indiana, Ohio State) and some teams that seem unlikely (Maryland, Penn State), but I feel very confident in saying that someone from outside the top four is going to surprise all of us and finish within the top four.
PRESEASON BIG TEN PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Luka Garza, Iowa
Luka Garza is my Preseason National Player of the Year. He had a season that was deserving of the award as a junior, averaging 23.8 points and 9.8 boards and finishing as the runner-up to Obi Toppin. There isn’t all that much else to say. I know he has his issues defensively. We all do. But he’s the best player in college basketball. It’s that simple.
THE REST OF THE BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
AYO DOSUNMU, Illinois:
MARCUS CARR, Minnesota:
AARON HENRY, Michigan State:
TRAYCE JACKSON-DAVIS, Indiana:
FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW
ROCKET WATTS, Michigan State
ISAIAH LIVERS, Michigan
ROB HARPER Jr., Rutgers
NATE REUVERS, Wisconsin
KOFI COCKBURN, Illinois
BREAKOUT STAR: Rocket Watts, Michigan State
Rocket Watts is not Cassius Winston. No one is Cassius Winston. It will be a while before we see someone like him in the college game again.
Watts is, however, really good. He struggled with his efficiency throughout the season, but he really came on strong down the stretch of the season. He turned it on in Big Ten play, and he averaged 17.8 points over the final four games of the regular season. The 28 percent shooting from three is not good enough, and neither is the 1.7 assists that he averaged. But I would expect A.J. Hoggard and Aaron Henry to be able to contribute some of the playmaking that Michigan State lost with Winston, and giving Watts free rein to hunt shots will be a good thing for a team that is going to need shot creators.
He’ll have a big sophomore season.
COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Mark Turgeon, Maryland
Mark Turgeon has only made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament twice. He’s never made it past the Sweet 16. It’s only happened once as the head coach at Maryland, and that came in 2015-16, when his team entered the season as a preseason top three team and entered the tournament as a No. 5-seed.
It’s unfortunate that last year’s tournament didn’t happen, because a roster with the senior version of Anthony Cowan, Jalen Smith and all those solid wings was probably the best that Turgeon will have in College Park. But the Terp faithful are getting restless. He has not brought a return to glory to the Maryland program. Only frustration for the fanbase. Last year could have alleviated some of that pressure. Now, he’s looking at having to fight and scrap just to get into the tournament.
ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING …
For a conference that is as good and as deep as the Big Ten, I’m shocked that they are heading into the NCAA tournament without anyone as a No. 1 or No. 2-seed.
I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT …
The race for the Big Ten regular season title is going to be somewhere between a rock fight and a Royal Rumble. Seeing who survives will be fun.
POWER RANKINGS
TIER 1 (favorites)
1. ILLINOIS: A bet on Illinois is very much a bet on Dosunmu’s shooting coming around and Cockburn’s defense continuing to improve. I made that bet. Quite literally.
TIER 2 (contenders)
2. MICHIGAN STATE: It really does feel to me like Michigan State is being undervalued. I know what they lost, trust me. But there are so many pieces on this roster that have significant room to continue growing. Throw in an eligible Joey Hauser, and the Spartans have themselves a team that can win the Big Ten.
3. IOWA: I wrote 3,000 words on Iowa last month. You really should read that.
4. WISCONSIN: I’m not sure what else there is to say that I haven’t already said about Wisconsin here. They’re going to be good enough to compete at the top of the Big Ten. But it feels like they are one guard short and like they have one too many centers.
TIER 3 (tournament tier)
5. INDIANA: I am cautiously bullish on next year’s Indiana team, and the biggest reason for that is the big fella. Trayce Jackson-Davis was Indiana’s best offensive and defensive weapon a season ago, averaging 13.5 points and 8.4 boards while finishing seventh in the league in block rate. He did not even test the draft waters, and if Indiana is going to finish at the top of this tier, it will mainly be because TJD is a monster. Beyond that, there are plenty of question, but plenty of options as well. For my money, there are going to be two things that determine whether Indiana is a legit top 25 team or just another middle of the pack Big Ten team fighting for scraps on the bubble:
1. Either Rob Phinisee or Khristian Lander has to develop into someone that can be an above-average Big Ten point guard. My guess is that this year, at least early, it’s going to have to be Phinisee — I’ve been told Lander will need to marinate a bit at the college level.
2. There is going to have to be shooting somewhere on this roster. Devonte Green was the only guy that made more than 36 threes last year. They’re in the state of Indiana, for fuck’s sake. There has to be some shooters somewhere. You can’t have a team built around a big man that went 0-for-0 from three as a freshmen without shooting elsewhere.
6. OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes get the nod above the rest of this tier due to the presence of one Chris Holtmann. Trust in Holt. Now, I fully expect Ohio State to once again be one of the best defensive teams in the country, even without Luther Muhammad. I’m more concerned about the offensive end. I’m not sure just how many difference-makers they have. Duane Washington is dangerous but streaky. Justice Suenig averaged a lot of points for a bad Cal team. Seth Towns was awesome when he won Ivy League Player of the Year, but that was 30 months ago and he’s missed the last two season. C.J. Walker is fine. E.J. Liddell is fine. Kyle Young is fine. It’s a virtual lock that the Buckeyes are going to be good, but I struggle to see this team’s ceiling. This group screams No. 6-seed that loses in the second round to me.
7. MICHIGAN: The final record didn’t look great — after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis, Michigan lost eight of their next 12 games — but that run of form had a lot to do with injuries. Michigan, without question, outperformed expectation last season. Juwan Howard can coach. The question this year is going to be what happens with Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske, the two cornerstones of what the Wolverines did both offensively and defensively. Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner are both going to be great. Shooting, shot creation, positionally versatility, they have it all, especially with Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown eligible. But I don’t know if I trust either Eli Brooks or Columbia transfer Mike Brown at the point, and I don’t know if I trust the frontcourt triumvirate of Brandon Johns, Hunter Dickinson and Austin Davis. But I also don’t know that I shouldn’t trust them.
Put another way, I feel like we know what Ohio State is. I see their floor, I struggle to see their ceiling. With Michigan, it’s the opposite. The median outcome is roughly the same, but I can see a path to the Wolverines being an NIT team and the path to Michigan being a top four team in the Big Ten.
8. RUTGERS: If you don’t love the Rutgers story, do you actually love college basketball? A perennial doormat, Steve Pikiell took Rutgers to the point of earning an at-large bid had the 2020 NCAA tournament happened. That’s despite losing their best player to a transfer in the offseason.
Well, everyone — expect for Akwasi Yeboah and Caleb McConnell — is back. Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr., Jacob Young, Myles Johnson, Montez Mathis. Plus, they add top 30 recruit Cliff Omoruyi. This team is legit. My concern? Rutgers went 19-1 at home and 2-10 away from home last season. Will that continue without fans in the stands?
9. PURDUE: I want to be in on this Purdue team. I’m a noted and devoted Matt Painter stan. And I get the logic of people that are all in on them. The promising young core of this roster are all upperclassmen now. Trevion Williams has developed into an effective fulcrum of their offense. Sasha Stefanovic can run in circles and jack threes with the best of them. Eric Hunter had a good sophomore year. Aaron Wheeler looks to be in line for a good junior year. The pieces fit the way you want them to fit. I just don’t know if the pieces are good enough to be more than a bubble team.
TIER 4 (talking myself into them tier)
10. MINNESOTA: The Golden Gophers would not have been a tournament team last season if the tournament had happened, and they’re losing a guy that might just end up being a first round pick in Daniel Oturu. And despite that, I think there’s a chance this team will be pretty good, assuming Both Gach gets eligible. Marcus Carr is awesome. Gabe Kalscheur can do a job as a 3-and-D wing. Brandon Johnson and Liam Robbins will provide some size and experience inside. Depth is going to be an issue again, but when is it not for a Richard Pitino roster? They can get to the dance.
11. MARYLAND: Maryland has some great role players on their roster. I really like Eric Ayala, Darryl Morsell, Aaron Wiggins. The problem is everyone else. Maryland played six guys last year. They lost two of them — Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith — and both happened to be first-team All-Big Ten performers. There’s only so much you can get out of role players asked to be stars.
12. PENN STATE: I do feel bad for the few Penn State basketball fans that exist out there. Pat Chambers finally turned a corner three seasons ago, getting the Nittany Lions to within a whisker of the 2018 NCAA tournament. They were a top 50 team on KenPom the following season. Last year, they would have been a top six seed in the NCAA tournament had it happened.
But it didn’t happen. Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins graduated. Pat Chambers got fired. And now an interim coach is going to try and make it right for a program that has never really been right.
TIER 5 (other guys tier)
13. NEBRASKA: Fred Hoiberg is doing that thing were he loads up on all the transfers and second chance guys. And he has some interesting ones. Teddy Allen, Trey McGowens, Kobe Webster. Not enough to be relevant, however. I’m not sure there’s anything worth discussing on this roster beyond “they got a dude named Thorir Thorbjarnarson.”
14. NORTHWESTERN: Northwestern exists. There’s a guy on the roster named Boo Buie. Another named Miller Kopp. They’ll compete with Nebraska for 13th.