The Rebound's Preseason Top 25
The Rebound's Preseason Top 25
But with a twist.
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If you missed it, we rolled out the most in-depth conference previews that you’ll find anywhere on the internet last week: The ACC, the Big 12, the Big East, the Big Ten, the Pac-12 and the SEC.
This week, we took a look at some of the most interesting players around the country. We gave you a breakdown of the 12 players that are in line to have breakout seasons and a look at the “stars” that deserve more attention than they are getting.
Today, I’m giving out the goods on my top 25, with a twist.
Instead of talking about why each one of these teams is great, I decided to write about the one things that could end up derailing their season.
1. VILLANOVA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Collin Gillespie, Justin Moore, Caleb Daniels, Jermaine Samuels, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Where are the pros?
When Villanova won the national title in 2018, their entire starting lineup got picked in the NBA draft. Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo and Omari Spellman were picked in the first round. Jalen Brunson and Eric Paschall were drafted in the second round. Five pros. Five! How often do we see rosters with five pros on them?
Well, with Villanova, fairly often?
Because when they won the title in 2016, there were six NBA players on the roster: Brunson, Bridges and DiVincenzo (who barely played) as well as Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart and Daniel Ochefu.
Who on this year’s Villanova roster will play in the NBA?
Bryan Antoine entered the program with the most fanfare, but he has yet to break into the rotation. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is big enough and shoots it well enough that he’ll likely find his way to the league. Maybe Justin Moore? Maybe Caleb Daniels? Jermaine Samuels and Collin Gillispie seem more like quintessential college guys than future NBA players.
I do think Villanova is the best team in the country; I have them ranked No. 1 for a reason. The pieces fit. But at some point you have to start betting on talent, and their talent level is just not what it was in the years they won the national title.
2. BAYLOR
PROJECTED STARTERS: Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, Mark Vital, Tristan Clark
(This is going to be a winding road. But I think that it makes sense. Here goes.)
Last season, what made Baylor so special was how good they were defensively. Their no-middle defense and ability to switch anything and everything they wanted was just deadly for opposing offenses. Part of the reason they were as good as they were was due to the presence of Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital, who are two of the five-best defensive players in college basketball this season.
But a huge part of that success defensively was because Freddie Gillispie was an absolute freak, a 6-foot-10 center with quick enough feet to slide on the perimeter and a 7-foot-5 wingspan. Switchable rim protecters that weigh 245 pounds are not easy to find.
The guy that will, in theory, be starting in his stead is the guy who lost his starting spot to Gillispie in the first place: Tristan Clark. Clark was the best player on Baylor for the first semester in 2018-19, before a knee injury derailed that season and last season. He’s much more of a threat offensively than defensively, which begs the question: Will he be good enough to make up for the fact that Baylor won’t be defending at the same level? If he’s not, will Matthew Mayer? Will Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua be able to pick up Gillispie’s slack?
And to me, that’s critical.
They were utterly elite last season at getting stops, and while they could struggle to score the ball, the combination of Jared Butler and one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the sport ensured that they were efficient enough on that end that their defense could carry them.
If they are know longer the elite of the elite on one end, but only marginally better on the other, are they really still in the conversation for Preseason No. 1?
3. GONZAGA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi, Corey Kispert, Anton Watson, Drew Timme
For my money, Gonzaga is the hardest team in the country to pick holes in.
This roster is built the way that I think rosters need to be built at the collegiate level. In Jalen Suggs, hey have a standout lead guard that is something of a score-first bucket-getter. Joel Ayayi is the perfect compliment in the backcourt given his ability to play both on or off the ball. Corey Kispert is the quintessential role player, a 6-foot-7 3-and-D guy that has very real NBA potential. Anton Watson is the versatile stretch-four that has some positionlessness to him, while Drew Timme is an absolute unit on the block.
That is everything that you want. That’s it. Right there.
But the part that keeps me from entirely buying in to the Zags is that I’m not sure how the replace the presence of Tillie. He was so important to what they want to do, not just because he could make threes, and protect the rim, and score around the rim, but because he was an excellent passer that make their high-low game work. Oumar Ballo is going to be really good, but he’s more of a five than he is a four in Gonzaga’s preferred offense. And while I do like Watson, I’m not sure that he can do the things that Tillie did.
Tillie really was the piece that made it all work as well as it did. He had as much of a role in making Gonzaga the nation’s most efficient offense for two years running as anyone this side of Mark Few. You can’t replace that kind of impact with just anyone.
4. VIRGINIA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Kihei Clark, Casey Morsell, Tomas Woldetensae, Sam Hauser, Jay Huff
This one is easy: The Cavaliers finished 234th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency last season, smack in the middle of George Washington and New Orleans. Adding Sam Hauser will undoubtedly help, but it won’t be enough if the rest of the roster doesn’t continue to get better.
I wrote 3,000 words on Hauser and Virginia back in August. Read this.
5. KANSAS
PROJECTED STARTERS: Marcus Garrett, Bryce Thompson, Ochai Agbaji, Tyon Grant-Foster, David McCormack
In theory, I love the make-up of this Kansas roster. They have seven or eight versatile wings that should allow them to be able to play a four-out offense and switch all over the place defensively. They have a could of bigs that will allow Bill Self to be able to give different looks and matchup with different roster makeups. They have a nice blend of veterans and talented newcomers.
This is what, generally speaking, you want to look for in a national title contender.
But there are actually two majors concerns I have with this group, and they both stem from the fact that there really is no way to replace Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike.
Kansas was not a great offensive team a season ago. They were good enough because Dotson was a nightmare to keep out of the paint and Azubuike was the best lob threat in the sport, but they weren’t winning games because they could put up 85 on a given night. They were the best defensive team in the country, largely because Azubuike developed into one of the best defensive centers we’ve seen. He could defend the rim, he could play drop coverage against ball-screens, he could move his feet a little bit on the perimeter.
They should still be good, but more like a top 10-15 defense as opposed to the best defense.
When you then factor in that they are losing their two-most efficient ways of scoring — Dotson getting downhill, Azubuike catching lobs — it becomes very easy to see a path where Kansas struggles to live up to their lofty expecations.
6. ILLINOIS
PROJECTED STARTERS: Trent Frazier, Ayo Dosunmu, Adam Miller, Giorgi Bezhanishvili, Kofi Cockburn
Before we dive into Illinois, a confession: I am the proud owner of an Illinois national title future at 50:1 odds.
I think that makes me an Illini fan, right?
I locked that bet in on the day that both Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn announced that they were returning to school. Seeing as the line as moved all the way to 13:1, I feel pretty good about beating the market the way that I did.
But here’s the thing: It’s impossible to feel comfortable about the Illini.
Because at the end of the day, we’re relying on a lead guard that shot all of 29 percent from three last season, and a 290 pound big man that is about 20 years past the point in time when he would have been the most effective.
7. TENNESSEE
PROJECTED STARTERS: Santiago Vescovi, Josiah Jordan-James, Keon Johnson, Yves Pons, John Fulkerson
In theory, this is a Tennessee roster that should be loaded with talent. They have two potential first round picks in their freshmen class in Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer. Yves Pons is going to play in the NBA. Santiago Vescovi and Josiah Jordan-James were both good enough as freshmen for me to be bullish on what they can turn into as sophomores. And I haven’t even mentioned the guy that was arguably the best big man in the SEC down the stretch of last season, John Fulkerson.
That’s why I’m all in on this team. They have athletic scorers on the wings. They have a point guard that can shoot and distribute. They can play with a true five if they need to. They can play small with Jordan-James in something of a point-forward role if they need to. In theory, they look lethal.
And I think they will be.
But look at the key words there. Theory. Think. Should. There is so much about this group that is really unknown at this point. Can Vescovi stop turning the ball over? Will Jordan-James be better as a sophomore? Will Johnson and Springer avoid having freshmen seasons similar to that of Jordan-James? Everything looks great on paper, but basketball isn’t played on paper.
Until we see them on the court, it’s all a guessing game.
8. KENTUCKY
PROJECTED STARTERS: Devin Askew, Terrence Clarke, B.J. Boston, Keion Brooks, Olivier Sarr
We talk often about how tough it is to build a team from scratch, and that is essentially what John Calipari is going to be doing next season.
Look at that list of projected starters. Three are freshmen. One is a transfer. One is a sophomore that played a dozen minutes a night. The backup point guard is a transfer that sat out last season at a different school. The backup for every single other position is a freshmen.
Those are a lot of new faces.
Now, normally I would not be all that worried about it, especially in the long term. Coach Cal has a tendency to be able to figure these things out.
But what worries me is the point guard spot. The Wildcats are already going to be somewhat delayed in their development as a team given the fact that COVID has taken away much of their time in the offseason, as well as the majority of their buy games. That’s what a new roster figures out how to play with each other. That’s when you gel, in those moments. Having a good, veteran point guard can help mitigate those issues, but Kentucky doesn’t have one of those. That have a talented, inexperienced freshman that reclassified to get to school a year early, and they have a fifth-year senior that couldn’t win a starting spot at Creighton.
It could be ugly early.
9. DUKE
PROJECTED STARTERS: Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, Jalen Johnson, Matthew Hurt, Mark Williams
The Blue Devils are another one of these teams where, in theory, the pieces all first together well.
They bring back a pair of former five-stars in Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt, two guys that should benefit from a second season on campus. They add a loaded freshman class to the mix. Jeremy Roach should be able to handle point guard duties, especially when you consider that Jalen Johnson will be available to help shoulder some of the playmaking burden. D.J. Steward won’t be asked to do much more than go and get buckets, which is what he does best, and while Mark Williams is young, Duke added a grad transfer from Columbia to help bolster their frontline.
That all sounds good, until you consider that Duke is going to, once again, have issues defensively. Hurt was an absolute mess on the defensive end last season, and until he proves me wrong, I am going to go ahead and assume that will be the case again this season. He can get a bucket, but I’m not sure how he can share the floor with Johnson without becoming a sieve defensively.
And I do believe that you want to play them together for stretches. They are both probably among the five-best players on Coach K’s roster. Even in the moments were just one of them is on the floor, there are going to be at least three freshmen on the floor as well. There is going to be a learning curve here.
10. WISCONSIN
PROJECTED STARTERS: D’Mitrik Trice, Brad Davison, Aleem Ford, Nate Reuvers, Micah Potter
The Wisconsin basketball program very much has a brand and a style and a way that they do things, and while Greg Gard’s Wisconsin is not exactly the same as Bo Ryan’s Wisconsin, it is evident that Gard is a Ryan disciple.
What does that mean?
Well, if Wisconsin puts their five best players on the floor, two of the five will be centers and a third will be a white kid with a buzzcut that is known for taking charges and hitting opponents in the nuts.
Bucky Ball, baby!
Here’s the problem with that: It’s 2020. How often does playing with two centers work in the modern game? I know that both Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers made threes last season, and I know that Wisconsin is projected to be this behemoth defensively in KenPom’s preseason projections, but look at the teams at the top of this poll. Villanova has Jermaine Samuels playing the four and has become the epitome of small-ball at the college level. Baylor is going to use plenty of lineups where 6-foot-5 Mark Vital is their five. Gonzaga builds their offense around post touches as much as anyone, and I expect them to start Anton Watson at the four. Sam Hauser is going to play alongside Jay Huff for Virginia. Kansas is most likely starting four wings. Same with Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Wisconsin’s size will work to their benefit in the Big Ten, where every one in the league plays like it’s still 1997. But I have real doubts about the way it will translate across conferences.
11. IOWA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Joe Toussaint, C.J. Frederick, Joe Weiskamp, Jack Nunge, Luka Garza
Iowa’s can’t guard. They just aren’t good enough defensively. If my word isn’t enough, here’s 3,000 of my words detailing why.
12. TEXAS TECH
PROJECTED STARTERS: Kyler Edwards, Nimari Burnett, Terrance Shannon, Joel Ntambwe, Marcus Santos-Silva
Texas Tech is always going to be one of the best defensive teams in college basketball. Chris Beard is like Tony Bennett in that way. While the defenses they run are, essentially, polar opposites from one another, the emphasis and excellence on that end of the floor is exactly the same.
If you’re not going to put in the effort to get stops, you are not going to play for Chris Beard. Simple as that.
So the actual names on the roster don’t really matter to me. I just assume there is a certain floor that the Red Raiders will reach because they will get stops.
Where their ceiling comes into play, however, is on the offensive end of the floor, and I’m not sure that we — I — have fully appreciated just how much of a void was left by the graduation of Keenan Evans and the departure of Jarrett Culver. What Tech wants to do offensively works like this: They run a motion-based offense to try and create a look early in the clock, and if things get gummed up they allow their lead guard to make a play. The year they made the Elite Eight, that guy was Evans. The year they made the national title game, that guy was Culver, and Matt Mooney, to a point.
Last year, that guy never stepped forward. I thought it would be Jahmi’Us Ramsey. That didn’t work out.
This year, it could be one of any number of players. Kyler Edwards, Nimari Burnett, Mac McClung.
If none of them work out?
Well, let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
13. HOUSTON
PROJECTED STARTERS: Marcus Sasser, Caleb Mills, DeJon Jarreau, Quentin Grimes, Brison Gresham
When I did my first run through for the way-too-early Preseason Top 25 back in March, I had the Cougars in the top 6-7 range. That was back when I still thought that Nate Hinton was going to be back in school and both of Fabian White’s ACLs would be intact.
Now that those two are gone, I’m still very into Houston because A) they’re really talented, and B) they are coached by Kelvin Sampson. But there are absolutely more concerns today than there were six months ago, and they center on what happens on the defensive end of the floor. Hinton was just 6-foot-5, but he was a terrific rebounder that played with an utterly endless amount of energy at all times. That was extremely valuable for a team that didn’t have a ton of frontcourt depth.
And now that White is done for the year, there is even less frontcourt depth for this group. That’s an issue.
14. UCLA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Tyger Campbell, Johnny Juzang, Chris Smith, Jaime Jaquez, Jalen Hill
I’m in on UCLA. I’m buying a breakout season for Jaime Jaquez. I think Chris Smith is a stud. I think Johnny Juzang can live up to his hype with a change of scenery. Tyger Campbell doesn’t have to do much more than set the table for those dudes, and he can do that. Mick Cronin has enough capable bigs to take up space and provide energy.
I like this group.
I’m also very aware that this is more or less the same group that started out last season 8-9, that finished last season ranked outside the top 75 on KenPom, that needed to make a wild run in the thoroughly mediocre Pac-12 just to finish the season within shouting distance of a play-in game.
How confident are you that the UCLA of the last six weeks of 2019-20 is really who UCLA is when we had 3/4 of a season telling us they were something different?
15. NORTH CAROLINA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Caleb Love, Anthony Harris, Leaky Black, Armando Bacot, Garrison Brooks
There are really two things that teams coached by Roy Williams need to be able to do to thrive:
They need big, physical post players that can pound the glass, sprint the floor and score with their back to the basket.
They need a dynamic lead guard that can push the tempo and go and get his own shot.
This year, North Carolina has both of those things. Caleb Love should follow in the footsteps of Coby White and Cole Anthony and become a star at the point. Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot make up one of the best frontlines in the sport before you factor in that Day’Ron Sharpe and Walker Kessler are on their bench.
The question is what happens in between the bigs and the point.
Roy Williams’ wings are, in a word, not great. Leaky Black has not made the jump some of us expected him to make. Andrew Platek was unplayable at times last season. Puff Johnson and Anthony Harris are good enough to get a jersey. R.J. Davis is a big time shot-maker that stands all of 5-foot-11. It’s bad enough that there is actual talk of Brooks playing the three this year.
Think about that.
North Carolina is so low on wings that they are considering playing the Preseason ACC Player of the Year out of position to get their five-best players on the floor at the same time. Yikes.
16. FLORIDA STATE
PROJECTED STARTERS: Anthony Polite, M.J. Walker, Scottie Barnes, Raiquan Gray, Balsa Koprivica
This is going to sound weird, but I 100 percent believe that it is true: The Seminoles are losing a pair of lottery picks in Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams that had a combined-five years of eligibility remaining, and I think that the guy that they are going to miss the most is going to be Trent Forrest. Florida State has a half-dozen other long, athletic, switchable players that can make their defense one of the best in the country.
What they don’t have is a point guard.
Unless you’re buying into the idea that Scottie Barnes is, truly, a point guard.
Now let me be crystal clear: I love Scottie Barnes. I think he’s a top five pick. He’s a terrific defender at 6-foot-7 with the kind of physical tools that you expect out of someone that plays at Florida State. And while he is a really, really good passer that can handle the ball, I’m not entirely convinced that “good ball-handler that can pass” = “starting point guard for a the No. 16 team in American.”
But that’s what Florida State is going to be counting on.
17. MICHIGAN STATE
PROJECTED STARTERS: Rocket Watts, Josh Langford, Aaron Henry, Joey Hauser, Marcus Bingham
We all know how difficult it is going to be to replace Cassius Winston. I don’t think people fully appreciate just how difficult it’s going to be to replace Xavier Tillman at the same time. Winston was a once-in-a-generation point guard mind. Tillman not only was an elite passer at the five-spot, but he was one of the best defenders in the country that martialed that defense like a middle linebacker.
Both players were All-American talents, and their intangibles were more valuable.
I think very highly of both Rocket Watts and Joey Hauser, but it’s just not the same. It’s like when you stoled all the Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups out of your child’s Halloween basket. There are still some good candies left in their to pilfer, but it’s just not the same.
If you’re looking for specifics, it’s the playmaking. Watts will get buckets. So will Hauser. But who is creating? Can anyone make a play for a teammate on this roster? That’s the question that we need answered.
18. WEST VIRGINIA
PROJECTED STARTERS: Miles McBride, Kedrian Johnson, Emmitt Matthews, Derek Culver, Oscar Tshiebwe
This is the easiest one to write: Where are the buckets coming from?
We know what West Virginia is. They’re not Press Virginia anymore, but they are one of the toughest and most physical teams in the country. They are going to beat you up on the defensive end. They are going to force some turnovers. They are going to make running offense a living hell. They are going to dare the officials to call a foul on every possession, and even if they do, they are going to play 11 or 12 guys without breaking a sweat.
Bob Huggins is one of the best in the business at identifying the pieces that will work in his program and then adapting the way he plays to those pieces … defensively.
Offensively, well, that’s another conversation.
You know the saying, “their best offensive is a missed shot”? Well, there were times last year where West Virginia’s only offense was a missed shot. Relying on second chance points and fast break buckets is a tough way to make a living, but if Miles McBride doesn’t take the sophomore leap, that is going to be what the Mountaineers are.
19. CREIGHTON
PROJECTED STARTERS: Marcus Zegarowski, Mitchell Ballock, Damien Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney, Christian Bishop
The Bluejays are on the entirely opposite end of the spectrum from West Virginia.
Greg McDermott’s program is and always will be an elite offensive machine. That’s not going to change this year, not with Marcus Zegarowski, Mitch Ballock and Damien Jefferson back.
The issue for the Bluejays is on the defensive end. Last year, they finished the season ranked 78th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metrics, and then they lost their best perimeter defender, Ty-Shon Alexander, to the professional ranks with a year of eligibility remaining. So now not only are the concerns about Creighton’s interior defense still there, but now the one guy that was elite at keeping opponents from getting into the lane won’t be there to do those things.
Creighton is the Big East’s version of Iowa.
20. MICHIGAN
PROJECTED STARTERS: Eli Brooks, Chaundee Brown, Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, Hunter Dickinson
If Creighton is the Big East’s version of Iowa, then Michigan is the Big Ten’s version of Kentucky.
On the surface, there is so much to like about this team and the way that the roster is built. Isaiah Livers will play in the NBA at some point. Franz Wagner will get drafted into the NBA at some point. Both of them are big, versatile forwards that, when combined with Chaundee Brown, give Juwan Howard a lineup that features a point guard, a center and three wings in between.
Those three are going to be very good.
And while Hunter Dickinson is going to have big shoes to fill to replace the ever-underrated Jon Teske, I’m significantly more worried about the point guard spot. Is Eli Brooks going to be good enough to take over an offense that was martialed by Jeff Jackson, I mean Zavier Simpson.
It’s very hard for me to trust teams that don’t have great point guard play.
And the duo of Brooks and Columbia transfer Mike Smith might be great. If I knew they’d be great, the Wolverines would be a preseason top ten team for me.
21. TEXAS
PROJECTED STARTERS: Matt Coleman, Courtney Ramey, Andrew Jones, Greg Brown, Jericho Sims
I’ve made this point over and over again this offseason, but I just do not know how Shaka Smart is going to be able to keep everyone happy on this team.
The Longhorns bring back all 12 players from last year’s roster, and 11 of those 12 guys started at least one game last season. They also added a top ten recruit in Greg Brown, giving them a full 13 players that have a legitimate claim to playing time this season. It’s not really a coincidence that Texas made their run last season when they dealt with some injuries that limited Shaka Smart to just seven or eight healthy scholarship players.
Everyone was happy.
No one was complaining about playing time. No one was upset over a lack of minutes. It’s going to be hard to keep it that way when there are as many good players available as Shaka has right now.
22. LSU
PROJECTED STARTERS: Javonte Smart, Cam Thomas, Josh LeBlanc, Trendon Watford, Darius Days
LSU didn’t even pretend to try and play defense last season.
They finished the year sitting at 178th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The two-best athletes on last year’s roster are gone, as is Skylar Mays, who was something of a steadying influence in that program.
That’s not ideal.
Now, the points are going to come. Trendon Watford is a bucket. Cam Thomas is a bucket. But they will be somewhat superfluous if they do not come with an improvement defensively.
23. MEMPHIS
PROJECTED STARTERS: Alex Lomax, Boogie Ellis, Lester Quinones, D.J. Jeffries, Moussa Cisse
Memphis did not live up to expectations last season, but as I stated repeatedly throughout the preseason, the level of expectation that was put on them was entirely unfair.
This year it feels like people are over-correcting, which is why they are not showing up in all that many preseason top 25s. All their key players are going to have a year of experience under their belt this year, and they’ll have one of the best defensive presences in the country at the five in Moussa Cisse.
But there are still going to be very real question marks about them offensively. Last year, Memphis ranked 210th nationally in adjusted offensively efficiency. Getting the sophomore bump out of Damian Baugh, Boogie Ellis and Lester Quinones certainly should help, as should a healthy D.J. Jeffries. But even the addition of Landers Nolley is somewhat questionable; Nolley’s shooting fell off a cliff in the final month of last season.
The potential is certainly there.
But if you were to tell me that, come February, this team ranked outside the top 150 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, I’d believe it.
24. RUTGERS
PROJECTED STARTERS: Geo Baker, Montez Mathis, Jacob Young, Ron Harper Jr., Myles Johnson
Last season, Rutgers had maybe the most drastic home-road splits in all of college basketball. They went 18-1 at the RAC. They went 2-10 away from the RAC.
That is very concerning for one, simple reason: The RAC is not going to have any fans this year. Rutgers isn’t exactly now for their basketball program, but the truth is that in the years where they actually are good, that building gets loud and intense and tough to play in.
What will it be without fans?
Will there be any kind of home court advantage?
And what is this really good Rutgers team without home court?
Are they just regular Rutgers?
25. OREGON
PROJECTED STARTERS: Will Richardson, Chris Duarte, Amauri Hardy, Eric Williams, Eugene Omoruyi
I think that this Oregon roster has everything that Dana Altman looks for with one very notable exception: A five.
I don’t think that it’s a coincidence that the best team that Altman has ever fielded didn’t make their leap until Jordan Bell slid to the five after Chris Boucher tore his ACL. That made them positionless.
Who is that guy on this year’s roster?
Don’t say N’Faly Dante, because that’s wrong. It’s not Chandler Lawson, either. There are a couple of freshmen that have a chance, and Eugene Omoruyi should be able to play some five at times, but he’s certainly not Jordan Bell.